From Wiki
Jump to: navigation, search

PythagenPat is a winning percentage estimator developed by Patriot somewhat independently as a variation of Bill James' Pythagorean Theorem. PythagenPat allows for a floating exponent based on the total number of runs scored and allowed per game (RPG) rather than the traditional fixed Pythagorean exponent. The formula is more accurate than Pythagorean in the normal environments, as well as the extreme environments.

A team's PythagenPat W% estimate is:

W% = R^x/(R^x + RA^x)

where x = (RPG)^.287

The .287 exponent is often altered by analysts as anywhere between .27 and .29, based on the dataset being used.

It supercedes Pythagenport, which has been deprecated by its developer.