Individual Poster Page

See copyright notice at the bottom of this page.

List of All Posters

The 2003 Projections

August 22, 2003 - Scoriano

Player 2000 2001 2002 Baseline Forecasters Primer Readers Barry Bonds 1.127 1.379 1.381 1.231 1.248 1.268

Barry current actual 1.273 with a bullet.

The 2003 Projections

December 16, 2003 - Scoriano

Bonds final is 1.278, beating the consensus-es.

Exactly How Full of S is OPS? (August 6, 2003)

Posted 6:20 p.m., August 7, 2003 (#6) - Scoriano
  Obvious point: To make comparisons valuable, the product of any of these shorthand formulae still needs be adjusted for park context, etc.

Gleeman - Andruw Jones and Mike Cameron (August 15, 2003)

Posted 8:43 a.m., August 19, 2003 (#3) - Scoriano
  When comparing putouts, is it not best to compare NL players to NL players? Pitchers hitting in the NL might impact FB rates. This would eliminate Cameron, Hunter, Erstad, et. al. from the analyis or at least require some method for making adjustments.

New postseason odds (August 17, 2003)

Posted 8:37 a.m., August 19, 2003 (#5) - Scoriano
  Yanksare +5.5 and 6 in the loss column. They also have all their Tiger games left (the Red Sox were, IIRC, 9-1 vs. Detroit and are finished with them).

Advances in Sabermetrics (August 18, 2003)

Posted 6:28 p.m., August 19, 2003 (#17) - Scoriano
  Any other advances, or advances-to-come?

Practical hydrogen fuel cells will replace the standard transmission and delivery power grid as energy is relocalized as in the pre-industrial state of affairs.

On the baseball front, I imagine efforts will be made to marry the improved statistical insights with the scouting and player development efforts in Hispanic jurisdictions. If the statistical insights are seen as valuable, then creating a regime in foreign countries that will allow those insights, and not only traditional scouting, to be applied to players would be a great advance.

Advances in Sabermetrics (August 18, 2003)

Posted 6:52 p.m., August 19, 2003 (#20) - Scoriano
  Could someone here at Primer just state the policy that you're not only not going to link to BP articles, free or not,

Primer did so a few times last week and has many other times done so. The links to the breaking of the Rose story seemed to me to be intended to disseminate potentially important news broken by BP.

Gary H and Woolner are credited by Tango in the lead in and/or thread.

This thread is not intended to link to the article as news but to start a discussion of an idea that Tango thought to put out for further doscussion and not to become a per se critique of the article. I think that is fair.

Also, what stats are referred to that are BPs that are not credited?

I am not sure what it is that seems to be bugging you.

Advances in Sabermetrics (August 18, 2003)

Posted 10:10 p.m., August 19, 2003 (#22) - Scoriano
  Tango, don't waste your time. You'll get a much better return on investment of your time and effort from your kid, and the silliness of these criticisms will be all the more apparent from just one junior primates smile.

CF Rankings (August 22, 2003)

Posted 1:40 p.m., August 22, 2003 (#2) - Scoriano
  I asked this elsewhere with no response--it must be a really stupid question but don't pitchers hitting in the NL affect the PO numbers in a way that make direct NL vs. AL comparisons less valuable. P's might make less contact meaning fewer PO opporuities and they may also hit less FBs even when they put it in play. Anyone heave any insights or data on my silly questions?

CF Rankings (August 22, 2003)

Posted 2:23 p.m., August 22, 2003 (#5) - Scoriano
  AL 1098
NL 1022

Difference of approx. 7%

CF Rankings (August 22, 2003)

Posted 2:29 p.m., August 22, 2003 (#6) - Scoriano
  When you adjust for league and park, Atlanta comes out on top.

Not sure what you mean. Did you take out FBs hit by DHs? Did you adjust for interleague play? What adjustments did you make for park?

CF Rankings (August 22, 2003)

Posted 10:07 a.m., August 25, 2003 (#14) - Scoriano
  Regarding the offensive Win Shares: you're right, but Win Shares essentially is built to do this. A player who creates 100 runs in a league that scores 5.0 runs/game will receive less Win Shares than the one who creates 100 runs in a league that scores 4.5 runs/game. That's because the latter player's runs are more "valuable" within the league context.

I buy that, but if you are making cross-league player comparisons or even cross-era comparisons to AL or predominantly AL players you should see if an adjustment is necessary. I think you have to do this to be fair to the player. Irealize ARODs Win Shares may be reflective of his value in the AL, but if he were in the NL with the same performance, but only 8 real hitters, his Win Shares would be higher. I don't know what you would need to take into account to make the adjustment. Is there a magic bullet for this? My guess is that its pretty complicated since AL batters bat with more runners on base and other things that make it somewhat easier to have better numbers, so you not only have to ajust upwards for the lack of a 9th real hitter some of the time in the NL but you also have to adjust the AL down a bit for things like that.

RBIs (September 15, 2003)

Posted 6:42 p.m., September 16, 2003 (#8) - Scoriano
  I believe Gehrig lost some RBI when Durocher screwed up running the bases the year he set the AL record. Maybe that's why the Yanks got rid of Leo so unceremoniously.

RBIs (September 15, 2003)

Posted 6:50 p.m., September 16, 2003 (#9) - Scoriano
  Nope, wrong anecdote--but he shoulda had 186 RBI:

From BaseballLibrary.com per Steve Holjte: "April 26, 1931: Dusty Cooke, Yankee RF, is hurt diving for a fly ball off the bat of Ossie Bluege of Washington. 1B Gehrig winds up playing the ball, which becomes an inside-the-park HR. With Babe Ruth still sidelined, the shorthanded Yankees send P Red Ruffing to the outfield. The game's most significant play comes with Lyn Lary on base when Lou Gehrig's drive into the CF stands at Washington bounces back and is caught by CF Harry Rice. According to the rules, this is a home run, but when Lary sees Rice catching the ball, he thinks it's the final out of the inning. Unnoticed by Joe McCarthy, coaching at 3B, Lary heads for the dugout after crossing 3B. Gehrig circles the bases. He is called out and gets credit for a triple instead of a HR and loses 2 RBI. As a result Gehrig will end the season tied for the HR title with Babe Ruth and will have "only" 184 RBI."

TheStar.com - Analyze this: NBA '04 (September 19, 2003)

Posted 10:14 a.m., September 19, 2003 (#1) - Scoriano
  It could be James or could be STATS, Inc. to which he is referring.

Instructions for MVP (September 22, 2003)

Posted 12:57 p.m., September 25, 2003 (#6) - Scoriano
  I wonder if the instructions for the Hank Aaron Award provide any insight as well or have they given the vote for that to the fans, changing it from the hitters equivalent of the CYA to a popularity contest?

Instructions for MVP (September 22, 2003)

Posted 6:18 p.m., September 25, 2003 (#8) - Scoriano
  Thanks Yaz. Popularity contest was too strong but I have a feeling that many times Griffey might have undeservedly won in the early/mid-90s.

However, we might actually see good results with the fans voting.

Most pitches / game in a season (September 22, 2003)

Posted 2:22 p.m., September 23, 2003 (#9) - Scoriano
  In my preliminary look, I see no evidence of arm damage and usage pattern at this level. Until I continue this study, I would say that pitchers can handle 120 pitch outings, and that relievers can handle 100 inning seasons without extra damage.

I appreciate that these are preliminary but I don't think you can infer broad conclusions about "pitchers" from this data. Some of these pitchers are quite different than other guys who throw a ball for a living. Some of these men may have been physically exceptional; their experience not applicable to most other hurlers. However, if the prelim conclusions are based on broader data of all pitchers that would be worth noting.

Most pitches / game in a season (September 22, 2003)

Posted 5:49 p.m., September 23, 2003 (#11) - Scoriano
  For relievers, yes, it is based on broader data. Relievers are being incredibly pampered.

For starters: stay tuned!

Thanks, I can't hardly wait, it seems non-intuitive and promises to be revealing.

Mark Prior and the Perfect Delivery (September 30, 2003)

Posted 8:44 p.m., September 30, 2003 (#3) - Scoriano
  If video is the answer then a team should at least be able to analysze their own pitchers, minors included in detail. They would also be able to go back in time to build as much data as they wanted if the existing video gives them a good enough view of what they need to see.

Anatomy of a Collapse (October 15, 2003)

Posted 4:18 p.m., October 15, 2003 (#5) - Scoriano
  Awesome. The comments were spot on.

Managers Post-season records (October 22, 2003)

Posted 10:50 p.m., October 22, 2003 (#5) - Scoriano
  Torre and McCarthy are tough to beat. Casey and Sparky are premier, too.

Does it matter--ask Red Sox fans. Ok, that's not an answer, but I think it has to matter. Matchup strategy, in game and series wide is more critical than in regular season. I think managers' judgments matter more. Which pitchers to start, which days, etc.

Cities with best players (October 23, 2003)

Posted 11:58 a.m., October 26, 2003 (#32) - Scoriano
  LC Greenwood was a 6-time NFL Pro-Bowler and a terrific pass rushing end whose height and span permitted him to be one of the greatest defensive pass blockers of all time. Howeve, to be top 10 all-time he'd ahve to crack this list: Bob Lilly, Deacon Jones, Joe Greene, Gino Marchetti, Reggie White, Alan Page, Randy White, Bruce Smith, Bobby Bell, Buck Buchanan. I think Michael Strahan may be comparable.

I respectfully disagree about Lynn Swann, and John Stallworth.
They are both HOF-caliber to be sure, however, I would rate them behind at least the following WR's:

Rice, Cris Carter, Hutson, Largent, Monk, Lance Alworth, Raymond Berry, Elroy Hirsch, Paul Warfield, Charley Taylor, Fred Belitnikoff, and perhaps Art Monk, Andre Reed and Tim Brown.

You forgot Blount, who is definitely a top 10 DB.

The Steel Curtain is in my mind easily the greatest dynasty of the NFL era. The combined talents of those teams really never has been approached.

Results of the Forecast Experiment, Part 2 (October 27, 2003)

Posted 6:20 p.m., October 27, 2003 (#24) - Scoriano
  The average reader was .788.

(.788 was # 89).

Woo- hoo! I'm the average Primate, which also makes me sub-Monkey.

Results of the Forecast Experiment, Part 2 (October 27, 2003)

Posted 6:21 p.m., October 27, 2003 (#26) - Scoriano
  Posted 5:57 p.m., October 27, 2003 (#23) - baseball chick
i wish i had sent mine in. i see the winner was a GIRL!!!!!
chicks rule

Chicks dig the crystal ball.

Results of the Forecast Experiment, Part 2 (October 27, 2003)

Posted 12:44 p.m., November 9, 2003 (#82) - Scoriano
  "Andrea" in Italian = "Andrew" in English. IOW, not a girl.

So is "Silvio" Berlusconi really "Silvia" in English?

Gleeman - Jeter - Clutch (October 30, 2003)

Posted 2:53 p.m., October 30, 2003 (#3) - Scoriano
  Derek Jeter is a .210/.355/.306 hitter with runners in scoring position and a .245/.345/.329 hitter with men on base

Well those numbers should be compared to his teammates and adjusted by the quality of the competition. And, one of these days I'll do the work and back out Jeter's 2001 ALCS and 2001 WS numbers. He got hurt in the last game against Oakland in the 2001 ALDS making a catch in which he fell into the stands. He was heavily taped and played in pain in the next two series. I don't think he would have played if those were normal regular season gmaes but this was the post-season and the Yankees had no real good choice. I don't think the comparisons that include these numbers are fair in evaluating Jeter's clutchness. He may not be clutch, but using those numbers are either apples versus oranges or two different types of apples in my view.

Gleeman - Jeter - Clutch (October 30, 2003)

Posted 1:30 p.m., October 31, 2003 (#7) - Scoriano
  mincing it down....And if you take out Jeter's injured games, you have to do it to all injured players.

If you want to have a better understanding of the player's performance you have to find a way to give effect to the particulars to get closer to the truth. I am not saying it is easy, but in Jeter's case the injury in 2001 was obvious and obviously hurt his hitting performance. If you watched the games, you could see he had trouble with his shoulder. I don't know for a fact that he would have sat if those were typical regular season games, but that's my strong sense. Similarly, I don't think you can ignore that Giambi's post-season numbers this year are hampered by his knee injury. It's just part of the overall attempt to engage in complete analysis. The numbers are the numbers, no doubt, but the overall analysis and the explanations, the discussions about it should include all relevant facts of which injuries may be one large component that should not be ignored in all cases.

You'd have to see Pedro-like numbers from his teammates to show that Jeter stood head and shoulders above them.

I am not sure whether the "head and shoulders" test should be the test, and what the delta would need to be to satisfy it, but there does appear to be a lot of Pedro-like performance in the post-season Yankee playoff series, and some trend for Jeter to perform above his teammates:

1. Yanks 03 PS .250 .324 .389 .713/Jeter .314 .385 .471 .856
2. Yanks 03 WS .261 .338 .406 .743/Jeter .346 .393 .462 .854
3. Yanks 03 CS .227 .299 .378 .677/Jeter .233 .281 .400 .681
4. Yanks 03 DS .275 .344 .384 .728/Jeter .429 .556 .643 1.198
5. Yanks 02 DS .281 .358 .467////Jeter .500 .556 .875
6. Yanks 01 WS .183 .237 .288////Jeter .148 .148 .259 (injured) The Yankees were facing Pedro-like pitching in this series, and it is the one in which they have the most at bats (226) as a team since '96.
7. Yanks 01 CS .264 .357 .440////Jeter .118 .211 .118 (injured)
8. Yanks 01 DS .241 .288 .355////Jeter .444 .474 .500
9. Yanks 00 WS .263 .353 .408////Jeter .409 .480 .864
10. Yanks 00 CS .279 .358 .417////Jeter .318 .464 .591
11. Yanks 00 DS .244 .310 .333////Jeter .211 .286 .211
12. Yanks 99 WS .270 .333 .416////Jeter .353 .389 .412
13. Yanks 99 CS .239 .309 .409////Jeter .350 .409 .550
14. Yanks 99 DS .235 .306 .378////Jeter .455 .538 .727
15. Yanks 98 WS .309 .396 .475////Jeter .353 .450 .353
16. Yanks 98 CS .218 .336 .330////Jeter .200 .259 .320
17. Yanks 98 DS .253 .299 .451////Jeter .111 .273 .111
18. Yanks 97 DS .259 .339 .410////Jeter .333 .417 .667
19. Yanks 96 WS .217 .308 .288////Jeter .250 .375 .250
20. Yanks 96 CS .273 .345 .497////Jeter .417 .417 .625
21. Yanks 96 DS .264 .327 .379////Jeter .412 .412 .471

Jeter's OPS has been higher than the team average in 15 of 21 post-season series, and 15 of 19 if you eliminate the 2001 ALCS and WS when he was obviously hurt badly. His recent performances suggest that his performances might properly be characterized as at least as good or better than his teammates (I am not saying that defines clutch, but it may be pointing in that direction at least):

Since the start of the 1999 ALDS, he has performed above his teammates in every series but the two in which he was injured and the 2000 ALDS vs. Oakland. That is 11 of 14 series and 11 of 12 in which he was not badly injured. You could argue that his OBP was relatively more important than slugging and extend the analysis to the 1998 WS where he slugged poorly but had a .450 OBP and led the team in hits and runs but I have not applied that method across the board.

Gleeman - Jeter - Clutch (October 30, 2003)

Posted 3:48 p.m., October 31, 2003 (#9) - Scoriano
  Btw, didn't Giambi hit 4 HR this post-season? And wasn't his OPS near the top of the team as well?

Yes, but in the reg season he was first, and in the post-season he was third. He also lost a game in part to his injury.

Gleeman - Jeter - Clutch (October 30, 2003)

Posted 3:50 p.m., October 31, 2003 (#10) - Scoriano
  Yanks '96 .796 Jeter .800
Yanks '97 .798 Jeter .775
Yanks '98 .822 Jeter .865
Yanks '99 .814 Jeter .889
Yanks '00 .804 Jeter .897
Yanks '01 .769 Jeter .857
Yanks '02 .809 Jeter .794
Yanks '03 .810 Jeter .844 Yanks PS .713 Jeter .856

Is the '03 analysis, where Jeter extends his positive delta compared to his teammates, the type of thing you are suggesting, Tango?

I don't have the db to back Jeter out of his teammates and to eliminate pitchers hitting from this, which I think might also be a good idea.

Gleeman - Jeter - Clutch (October 30, 2003)

Posted 11:07 a.m., November 1, 2003 (#12) - Scoriano
  Yanks '96 .796 Jeter .800 Yanks DS .706 Jeter .883 relative delta improves significantly
Yanks '96 .796 Jeter .800 Yanks CS .842 Jeter 1.042 relative delta improves significantly
Yanks '96 .796 Jeter .800 Yanks WS .596 Jeter .625 relative delta improves moderately
Yanks '97 .798 Jeter .775 Yanks DS .749 Jeter 1.084 relative delta improves significantly
Yanks '98 .822 Jeter .865 Yanks DS .750 Jeter .384 relative delta declines significantly
Yanks '98 .822 Jeter .865 Yanks CS .666 Jeter .579 relative delta declines significantly
Yanks '98 .822 Jeter .865 Yanks WS .871 Jeter .803 relative delta declines significantly**
Yanks '99 .814 Jeter .889 Yanks DS .684 Jeter 1.263 relative delta improves significantly
Yanks '99 .814 Jeter .889 Yanks CS .718 Jeter .959 relative delta improves significantly
Yanks '99 .814 Jeter .889 Yanks WS .749 Jeter .801 relative delta declines moderately
Yanks '00 .804 Jeter .897 Yanks DS .643 Jeter .497 relative delta declines significantly
Yanks '00 .804 Jeter .897 Yanks CS .775 Jeter 1.055 relative delta improves significantly
Yanks '00 .804 Jeter .897 Yanks WS .761 Jeter 1.344 relative delta improves significantly
Yanks '01 .769 Jeter .857 Yanks PS .647 Jeter .566 Jeter relative delta declines significantly*
Yanks '02 .809 Jeter .794 Yanks PS .825 Jeter 1.431 Jeter relative delta improves significantly
Yanks '03 .810 Jeter .844 Yanks PS .713 Jeter .856 Jeter relative delta improves significantly

• Jeter injured for ALCS and WS. His ALDS OPS was .974 as compared to the Yanks .643. He was injured in Game 5 of that series, and was dreadful at the plate for the rest of the post-season.
• Jeter OBP was .450, and he led the team in hits and runs.

I don't know if this is or is not clutch, but on the whole, that is pretty damn impressive.

Gleeman - Jeter - Clutch (October 30, 2003)

Posted 11:09 a.m., November 1, 2003 (#13) - Scoriano
  The formatting toyed with my notes. The ** refers to the second bullet point note regarding Jeter's .450 OBP in the '98 WS. The * refers to the note regarding his 2001 injury.

Gleeman - Jeter - Clutch (October 30, 2003)

Posted 5:10 p.m., November 1, 2003 (#15) - Scoriano
  I am personally not trying to define "clutch". However, I think what most people that refer to Jeter as a "clutch" player mean is that he has raised his level of play in some way in the playoffs. I think there is evidence that this is true on a relative basis to his teammates and that if a player is excelling relative to his teammates in so many post-season series, it is likely that he fits within the meaning of the word "clutch" as used by those people.

As for the implication by Gleeman et. al. that Jeter's situational hitting is not clutch, that may be so, I really don't know and I have not looked at his teammates in comparable situations and the caveat stated in post #11 is importatn to bear in mind, but the numbers are not contextualized, and the reader that refers to them with his own knowledge of what is a good regular season performance is actually misled. I think it is too easy to come to the conclusion stated by David Smyth that its all a media infatuation with the big play at the expense of the overall perrformance, a view that is almost certainly correct when it comes to Jeter's def

Gleeman - Jeter - Clutch (October 30, 2003)

Posted 5:23 p.m., November 1, 2003 (#16) - Scoriano
  Damn, I lost half the text of my post. In short, post-season numbers have to be contextualized because there appears to be so much good pitching. For example, the Yanks have frequently had lower offensive stats in the post-season than the regular season. I guess they could have choked but my guess is that the pitching is tougher, the matchups more manipulated by managers, more of the ABs are with good pitchers in the game, and thus the decline may also manifest itself in the supposedly "clutch situations". Gleeman's quoted numbers look bad for Jeter because we know they would stink in the regular season but you'd have to see his teammates PS-nubmers, too, to contextualize them properly. Unless you do that, the implication of the stated numbers may be misleading. Maybe they are not misleading, and Jeter has been subpar even accounting for the caveat stated above, but his overall performance in the playoffs remains praiseworthy in my view and we need to be sure that the correct rigor is applied to analyzing someone that seems to be such a lightning rod for people on all sides with varying prejudices.

Gleeman - Jeter - Clutch (October 30, 2003)

Posted 7:46 p.m., November 4, 2003 (#18) - Scoriano
  Cashman has discloseed that Jeter played in the '03 ALCS and WS with a ruptured tendon in his left thumb, that may heal with rest or require surgery. FWIW, I didn't notice a difference in his swing or approach to fielding balls.

ALCS Game 7 - MGL on Pedro and Little (November 5, 2003)

Posted 9:38 p.m., November 7, 2003 (#32) - Scoriano
  “After the seventh inning I told the pitching coach (Dave Wallace) to get left-hander Alan Embree and right-hander Mike Timlin ready because I was tired,” Martinez said in an interview with the Dominican press.

http://www.msnbc.com/news/990777.asp?0cv=CB20

Win Shares per Dollar (November 20, 2003)

Posted 8:30 p.m., November 24, 2003 (#5) - Scoriano
  Studes, I know the sample sizes are small but have you run playoff win shares?

Win Shares per Dollar (November 20, 2003)

Posted 12:38 p.m., November 25, 2003 (#8) - Scoriano
  Thanks, Studes. I think they would be interesting. Of course, I hope to use the data to further infer that Jeter has been very good in the post-season.

Baseball Graphs - Money and Win Shares (November 28, 2003)

Posted 1:29 p.m., November 29, 2003 (#5) - Scoriano
  Studes, any luck on Pete providing playoff data for Win Shares?

Baseball Graphs - Money and Win Shares (November 28, 2003)

Posted 3:23 p.m., November 29, 2003 (#7) - Scoriano
  Studes, thanks. I have Patriot's sheets. I may tackle offense only.

True Talent Fielding Level, 1999-2003
Adjusted by Difficulty of Position, and
Extracted to All Positions (December 23, 2003)

Posted 9:03 p.m., December 23, 2003 (#7) - Scoriano
  Nick Johnson is probably a surprise to most Yankee fans but I found him to be consistently awful.

I am surprised that Matsui is not somewhat better. He seemed to be decent on flyballs and especially good at cutting balls off and holding hitters to singles on balls down the line and in the gap to my eyes. His arm seemed average, but my observation was that his positioning and release were very good, so on the whole he is a surprise to me.

The Base on Balls (December 24, 2003)

Posted 7:34 p.m., December 25, 2003 (#5) - Scoriano
  Baseball Library does not show him to be dead yet.

http://www.baseballlibrary.com/baseballlibrary/ballplayers/L/Lane_FC.stm

:)

Lane wrote/compiled a very good book called Batting (I have a recent reprint), most of it quotes by players and other observers, but providing great insight into offensive attitudes of the era when Ruth was rewriting the record books. Unsuprisingly, much of the conventional wisdom of the day was not welcoming of the slugging approach take by Ruth.

03 MLE's - MGL (December 28, 2003)

Posted 5:04 p.m., December 28, 2003 (#1) - Scoriano
  http://yankees.theinsiders.com/2/216981.html?refid=1

Myrow is of course behind the former QB from Michigan and is reportedly a terrible fielder in the accounts I have read.

03 MLE's - MGL (December 28, 2003)

Posted 8:10 p.m., December 28, 2003 (#6) - Scoriano
  Is there any study on the predictive power of MLE's for older prospects. IIRC, are there relatively many successful late bloomers, that is to say, hitters that first achieved great success in the majors at age 27 or 28 or later. I seem to recall Neyer discounting the probability of Shane Spencer becoming a successful Major League power hitter on a similar basis.

As for Seguignol, I observed his limited sample size for the Yankees last year and was not impressed but that can be true of anyone in so few at bats. Nonetheless, I suspect that he is what the scouts might call a career AAA hitter. I don't know if that is fair, but when a player is that old, you might want more than MLE's and get the scouting reports, too. I think you'd always want them if you could find good scouts but one's MMV. In any event, I think he is likely to get a fair shot in spring training with the departure of Nick Johnson.

SABR 201 - Issues with MLEs - Why I hate them (December 31, 2003)

Posted 11:07 p.m., January 3, 2004 (#44) - Scoriano
  I have a sideways question ignited by all these fantastic major and minor (league) equations . What shoud clubs do to evaluate college players sabermetrically? I suspect there are enormous challenges in adjusting numbers based on almost completely unbalanced schedules, unreliable park adjustment data, etc.

We know from Moneyball, etc. that Beane looks for undervalued players, lesser tools, better OBP, less $ needed to sign them. But what could you do to actually rank them in order of performance/potential? And how does Beane really gain sufficient comfort that players he thinks are undervalued really are, if as I suspect, the evaluative tools are so imperfect. Riff away.

SABR 201 - Issues with MLEs - Why I hate them (December 31, 2003)

Posted 4:25 p.m., January 4, 2004 (#50) - Scoriano
  Great stuff, thanks.

Obscure Rule Flags Students Who Sharply Improve SAT Scores (January 21, 2004)

Posted 8:24 a.m., January 22, 2004 (#3) - Scoriano
  Thanks for not entitling this "Soriano's Rise Attributable to Cheating," or something like that. I woulda had a heart attack.

I wonder what the error rate on the program might be. It might be highly reliable, but if it is wrong even occasionally, it causes some terrific scars. It would seem very difficult to balance protecting the integrity of the tests and fairness to each individual test taker.

Obscure Rule Flags Students Who Sharply Improve SAT Scores (January 21, 2004)

Posted 11:27 a.m., January 22, 2004 (#9) - Scoriano
  I am at standstill on how to start evaluating schools and school districts for my daughter. SAT scores might be a part of the analysis. Does Mathteamcoach/anyone know of a source for determining what the historical average SAT scores have been? What the breakdowns might be by region, school districts, etc. Lefty vs. righty splits :)

Do private schools generally publish their student's average scores? Sources?

Of course, it is ultimately a Moneyball question. One has to compare the costs (including pesky taxes) and benefits. I may be a Yankee fan, but I may have to spend my educational dollars like Oakland.

Obscure Rule Flags Students Who Sharply Improve SAT Scores (January 21, 2004)

Posted 4:41 p.m., January 22, 2004 (#18) - Scoriano
  Mathteamcoach, thanks. I appreciate a practitoner's insights.

Super Bowl Notebook: Is Adams a genius' genius? (January 29, 2004)

Posted 11:39 a.m., January 29, 2004 (#4) - Scoriano
  Allen Barra has a piece on football stats analyst Bud Goode in today's Wall Street Journal, page D5. BudGoodeSports.com is his site.