Tango on Baseball Archives

Most pitches / game in a season (September 22, 2003)

Just a fun list to give you a picture...

Minimum 20 Games (includes relief games), min 120 pitches / game, since 1919

playerID year PperG
pfeffje01 1919 125
coopewi01 1921 126
grimebu01 1921 121
grimebu01 1923 126
ringji01 1923 121
ruethdu01 1923 122
grimebu01 1924 125
vanceda01 1924 131
vanceda01 1925 131
uhlege01 1926 125

whiteea01 1931 124
allenjo02 1933 120
whiteea01 1935 128
lyonste01 1935 120
bridgto01 1935 122
whitejo02 1935 122
ferrewe01 1936 120
kenneve01 1936 127
whiteea01 1936 120
ruffire01 1936 123
ruffire01 1937 122
ferrewe01 1937 123
gomezle01 1937 125
grovele01 1937 126
lyonste01 1938 127
newsobo01 1938 129
fellebo01 1938 127
ruffire01 1938 122
grovele01 1939 122
ruffire01 1939 122
fellebo01 1939 123

leonadu02 1940 125
lyonste01 1940 120
chaseke01 1940 123
waltebu01 1940 120
fellebo01 1941 130
leeth01 1941 125
lyonste01 1941 121
rignejo01 1941 122
smithed04 1941 120
waltebu01 1941 120
chandsp01 1942 124
lyonste01 1942 120
vandejo01 1943 130
niggejo01 1944 132
newhoha01 1946 122
fellebo01 1946 123
marchph01 1947 124
blackew01 1947 127
lopated01 1947 120
chesnbo01 1948 120
colemjo04 1949 120

raschvi01 1950 124
hudsosi01 1950 124
spahnwa01 1951 120
sheasp01 1952 121
shantbo01 1952 120
marreco01 1952 123
turlebo01 1954 122
scorehe01 1955 120
piercbi02 1956 124

schwado01 1961 120
pascuca02 1963 123
maricju01 1964 120
malonji01 1965 124
gibsobo01 1965 123
maricju01 1968 122
gibsobo01 1968 128
gibsobo01 1969 137
carltst01 1969 120
perryga01 1969 123
lolicmi01 1969 122

mcdowsa01 1970 127
gibsobo01 1970 136
carltst01 1970 121
seaveto01 1970 121
stonebi01 1971 124
gibsobo01 1971 121
lolicmi01 1971 127
jenkife01 1971 121
bluevi01 1971 120
ryanno01 1972 121
perryga01 1972 120
carltst01 1972 126
gibsobo01 1972 124
singebi01 1973 126
perryga01 1973 130
ryanno01 1973 133
blylebe01 1973 121
ryanno01 1974 135
tiantlu01 1974 121
carltst01 1974 122
perryga01 1974 127
blylebe01 1975 120
perryga01 1975 124
ryanno01 1975 123
richajr01 1976 120
tananfr01 1976 126
blylebe01 1976 126
hunteca01 1976 120
ryanno01 1976 127
palmeji01 1977 121
ryanno01 1977 142
niekrph01 1977 126
richajr01 1978 127
ryanno01 1978 133
richajr01 1979 121

norrimi01 1980 126
carltst01 1980 123
carltst01 1981 123
langfri01 1981 120
mccatst01 1981 122
carltst01 1982 121
vuckope01 1982 120
sotoma01 1983 124
morrija02 1983 121
carltst01 1983 123
valenfe01 1984 124
valenfe01 1985 120
valenfe01 1986 123
morrija02 1987 122
valenfe01 1987 124
clemero02 1987 122
langsma01 1987 128
langsma01 1988 121
wittbo01 1988 133
ryanno01 1989 122

johnsra05 1992 121
johnsra05 1994 123
coneda01 1995 121
martipe02 1997 120
clemero02 1997 120
schilcu01 1998 120
johnsra05 1999 123

--posted by TangoTiger at 04:31 PM EDT

Posted 4:35 p.m., September 22, 2003 (#1) - tangotiger
Same list, ordered by name.

playerID yearID PperG
allenjo02 1933 120
blackew01 1947 127
bluevi01 1971 120

blylebe01 1973 121
blylebe01 1975 120
blylebe01 1976 126

bridgto01 1935 122

carltst01 1969 120
carltst01 1970 121
carltst01 1972 126
carltst01 1974 122
carltst01 1980 123
carltst01 1981 123
carltst01 1982 121
carltst01 1983 123

chandsp01 1942 124
chaseke01 1940 123
chesnbo01 1948 120
clemero02 1987 122
clemero02 1997 120
colemjo04 1949 120
coneda01 1995 121
coopewi01 1921 126

fellebo01 1938 127
fellebo01 1939 123
fellebo01 1941 130
fellebo01 1946 123

ferrewe01 1936 120
ferrewe01 1937 123

gibsobo01 1965 123
gibsobo01 1968 128
gibsobo01 1969 137
gibsobo01 1970 136
gibsobo01 1971 121
gibsobo01 1972 124

gomezle01 1937 125

grimebu01 1921 121
grimebu01 1923 126
grimebu01 1924 125

grovele01 1937 126
grovele01 1939 122
hudsosi01 1950 124
hunteca01 1976 120
jenkife01 1971 121

johnsra05 1992 121
johnsra05 1994 123
johnsra05 1999 123

kenneve01 1936 127
langfri01 1981 120
langsma01 1987 128
langsma01 1988 121
leeth01 1941 125
leonadu02 1940 125
lolicmi01 1969 122
lolicmi01 1971 127
lopated01 1947 120

lyonste01 1935 120
lyonste01 1938 127
lyonste01 1940 120
lyonste01 1941 121
lyonste01 1942 120

malonji01 1965 124
marchph01 1947 124
maricju01 1964 120
maricju01 1968 122
marreco01 1952 123
martipe02 1997 120
mccatst01 1981 122
mcdowsa01 1970 127
morrija02 1983 121
morrija02 1987 122
newhoha01 1946 122
newsobo01 1938 129
niekrph01 1977 126
niggejo01 1944 132
norrimi01 1980 126
palmeji01 1977 121
pascuca02 1963 123

perryga01 1969 123
perryga01 1972 120
perryga01 1973 130
perryga01 1974 127
perryga01 1975 124

pfeffje01 1919 125
piercbi02 1956 124
raschvi01 1950 124

richajr01 1976 120
richajr01 1978 127
richajr01 1979 121

rignejo01 1941 122
ringji01 1923 121
ruethdu01 1923 122

ruffire01 1936 123
ruffire01 1937 122
ruffire01 1938 122
ruffire01 1939 122

ryanno01 1972 121
ryanno01 1973 133
ryanno01 1974 135
ryanno01 1975 123
ryanno01 1976 127
ryanno01 1977 142
ryanno01 1978 133
ryanno01 1989 122

schilcu01 1998 120
schwado01 1961 120
scorehe01 1955 120
seaveto01 1970 121
shantbo01 1952 120
sheasp01 1952 121
singebi01 1973 126
smithed04 1941 120
sotoma01 1983 124
spahnwa01 1951 120
stonebi01 1971 124
tananfr01 1976 126
tiantlu01 1974 121
turlebo01 1954 122
uhlege01 1926 125

valenfe01 1984 124
valenfe01 1985 120
valenfe01 1986 123
valenfe01 1987 124

vanceda01 1924 131
vanceda01 1925 131
vandejo01 1943 130
vuckope01 1982 120
waltebu01 1940 120
waltebu01 1941 120

whiteea01 1931 124
whiteea01 1935 128
whiteea01 1936 120

whitejo02 1935 122
wittbo01 1988 133

Posted 4:52 p.m., September 22, 2003 (#2) - Andrew Edwards
Same list, sorted by pitches (hope this formatting works).

ryanno01 1977 142
gibsobo01 1969 137
gibsobo01 1970 136
ryanno01 1974 135
ryanno01 1973 133
ryanno01 1978 133
wittbo01 1988 133
niggejo01 1944 132
vanceda01 1924 131
vanceda01 1925 131
fellebo01 1941 130
vandejo01 1943 130
perryga01 1973 130
newsobo01 1938 129
whiteea01 1935 128
gibsobo01 1968 128
langsma01 1987 128
kenneve01 1936 127
lyonste01 1938 127
fellebo01 1938 127
blackew01 1947 127
mcdowsa01 1970 127
lolicmi01 1971 127
perryga01 1974 127
ryanno01 1976 127
richajr01 1978 127
coopewi01 1921 126
grimebu01 1923 126
grovele01 1937 126
carltst01 1972 126
singebi01 1973 126
tananfr01 1976 126
blylebe01 1976 126
niekrph01 1977 126
norrimi01 1980 126
pfeffje01 1919 125
grimebu01 1924 125
uhlege01 1926 125
gomezle01 1937 125
leonadu02 1940 125
leeth01 1941 125
whiteea01 1931 124
chandsp01 1942 124
marchph01 1947 124
raschvi01 1950 124
hudsosi01 1950 124
piercbi02 1956 124
malonji01 1965 124
stonebi01 1971 124
gibsobo01 1972 124
perryga01 1975 124
sotoma01 1983 124
valenfe01 1984 124
valenfe01 1987 124
ruffire01 1936 123
ferrewe01 1937 123
fellebo01 1939 123
chaseke01 1940 123
fellebo01 1946 123
marreco01 1952 123
pascuca02 1963 123
gibsobo01 1965 123
perryga01 1969 123
ryanno01 1975 123
carltst01 1980 123
carltst01 1981 123
carltst01 1983 123
valenfe01 1986 123
johnsra05 1994 123
johnsra05 1999 123
ruethdu01 1923 122
bridgto01 1935 122
whitejo02 1935 122
ruffire01 1937 122
ruffire01 1938 122
grovele01 1939 122
ruffire01 1939 122
rignejo01 1941 122
newhoha01 1946 122
turlebo01 1954 122
maricju01 1968 122
lolicmi01 1969 122
carltst01 1974 122
mccatst01 1981 122
morrija02 1987 122
clemero02 1987 122
ryanno01 1989 122
grimebu01 1921 121
ringji01 1923 121
lyonste01 1941 121
sheasp01 1952 121
carltst01 1970 121
seaveto01 1970 121
gibsobo01 1971 121
jenkife01 1971 121
ryanno01 1972 121
blylebe01 1973 121
tiantlu01 1974 121
palmeji01 1977 121
richajr01 1979 121
carltst01 1982 121
morrija02 1983 121
langsma01 1988 121
johnsra05 1992 121
coneda01 1995 121
allenjo02 1933 120
lyonste01 1935 120
ferrewe01 1936 120
whiteea01 1936 120
lyonste01 1940 120
waltebu01 1940 120
smithed04 1941 120
waltebu01 1941 120
lyonste01 1942 120
lopated01 1947 120
chesnbo01 1948 120
colemjo04 1949 120
spahnwa01 1951 120
shantbo01 1952 120
scorehe01 1955 120
schwado01 1961 120
maricju01 1964 120
carltst01 1969 120
bluevi01 1971 120
perryga01 1972 120
blylebe01 1975 120
richajr01 1976 120
hunteca01 1976 120
langfri01 1981 120
vuckope01 1982 120
valenfe01 1985 120
martipe02 1997 120
clemero02 1997 120
schilcu01 1998 120

Posted 7:29 p.m., September 22, 2003 (#3) - bob mong
I am assuming, Tango, that this is based on your pitch-count estimatation formula (for the older seasons, anyway). Is that correct, or do you have some crazy source?

Posted 9:17 p.m., September 22, 2003 (#4) - Michael Humphreys
Tango,

Interesting list. Surprised that there haven't been more such seasons since 1919. Very few 1990s seasons. Have you reached any tentative conclusions regarding the damage, if any, caused by high single-season pitch counts? Just looking at the list, it's hard to say there is any immediately obvious impact. I guess what one would have to do is conduct some sort of time-series test to see if there is a statistically significant decline in ERA+ or DIPS performance one, two or three years after a 120+ season.

Posted 9:53 a.m., September 23, 2003 (#5) - tangotiger
Michael, that is actually something I will be looking at within the next 6 months.

In my preliminary look, I see no evidence of arm damage and usage pattern at this level. Until I continue this study, I would say that pitchers can handle 120 pitch outings, and that relievers can handle 100 inning seasons without extra damage.

Posted 10:15 a.m., September 23, 2003 (#6) - tangotiger
Bob, those were simply results from my already-published pitch count estimator. I published the estimates for all pitchers since 1889 (when the ball-strike count was finally the most similar to today) at the baseball-databank yahoo group.

Posted 11:58 a.m., September 23, 2003 (#7) - FJM
I think we can agree that many pitchers could handle a 120-pitch average, if that's what they became accustomed to. The real problem is not so much the mean but the standard deviation. Throwing 120 every time out is very different than throwing 100 in half your starts and 140 in the other half. Could you post the st. dev. as well? Alternatively, show the total number of starts and the number in the 120's, 130's and 140's separately.

Posted 12:25 p.m., September 23, 2003 (#8) - tangotiger
My estimates are on a seasonal-level. I only have the pbp from 1972-1992, and I have not confirmed if my estimates work at that level. I would think they would not.

For example, say you have RJ who is a non-contact pitchers, but he happened to pitch 7 innings, with 5 hits, 1 walk and 4 K. Now, with my estimates, it would infer that he did not go deep into the count. But, what if you had Brad Radke post the same line?

I think what happens here is a sampling issue. That, probably, RJ went deeper into the count than Radke did based simply on their pitching styles, but that, by luck, hitters managed to contact balls deep in the count with RJ, rather than K/BB as they normally would.

In any case, I will eventually produce such numbers, and we can compare to see if my theory here would hold.

***
I did previously publish Koufax's log, and the standard deviation there was much much higher than what we are used to. He had numerous pitch outings of over 140 pitches/game. However, his overall average was under 120. Why? Because he had numerous pitch outing of under 100 and even under 80 pitches/game.

I'm dumbfounded by this type of pitcher usage pattern (I'm guessing managers saw the small sample that Koufax was "in trouble" and assumed he was off that day. Today's managers are probably much smarter and realize that small sample size is probably at work, and maybe their pitching coach is telling them that mechanically all is fine, so just wait for the performance to catch up to his talent.)

Posted 2:22 p.m., September 23, 2003 (#9) - Scoriano
In my preliminary look, I see no evidence of arm damage and usage pattern at this level. Until I continue this study, I would say that pitchers can handle 120 pitch outings, and that relievers can handle 100 inning seasons without extra damage.

I appreciate that these are preliminary but I don't think you can infer broad conclusions about "pitchers" from this data. Some of these pitchers are quite different than other guys who throw a ball for a living. Some of these men may have been physically exceptional; their experience not applicable to most other hurlers. However, if the prelim conclusions are based on broader data of all pitchers that would be worth noting.

Posted 3:15 p.m., September 23, 2003 (#10) - tangotiger
For relievers, yes, it is based on broader data. Relievers are being incredibly pampered.

For starters: stay tuned!

Posted 5:49 p.m., September 23, 2003 (#11) - Scoriano
For relievers, yes, it is based on broader data. Relievers are being incredibly pampered.

For starters: stay tuned!

Thanks, I can't hardly wait, it seems non-intuitive and promises to be revealing.

Posted 8:14 p.m., September 23, 2003 (#12) - FJM
TT: I tried to test your Johnson/Radke hypothesis. First I looked at all of Radke's 2001-03 starts where 1)he pitched at least 7 innings, and 2) BB+SO < IP. There were a total of 38 starts that qualified. Here is what his average qualified start looked like. IP: 7.7, H: 6.4, BB: 0.7, SO: 3.9, Pitches: 99.5.

I then ran a multiple regression on the data, forcing the intercept to 0. Although the fit wasn't very good (R = .55), the coefficients looked reasonable, except for the BB coefficient. Here is the Radke Model: Pitches = 9.45*IP + 3.40*H + 1.34*BB + 0.87*SO. Of course, the BB coefficient should be greater than the H coefficient. But since Radke hardly ever allows more than 1 walk, they don't affect the model very much.

When I tried to do the same for Randy Johnson, I ran into a problem immediately: he had only 7 starts that met the criteria! With so few data points, fitting a model was out of the question. So instead I used the coefficients from the Radke model and applied them to Randy's average start. Here are Randy's numbers: IP : 7.7, H: 7.0, BB: 0.4, SO: 5.7, Pitches: 103.1. Given those numbers, the Radke model predicted he would average 102.3 pitches. That's less than a 1% error. Not bad!

To further test the Radke model, I did the same thing for another non-contact pitcher, Curt Schilling. He had 12 starts that qualified. Here are his averages: IP : 7.8, H: 8.2, BB: 0.5, SO: 5.5, Pitches: 108.7. And the Radke model predicted 107.3. That's a 1.3% error. Again, not bad!

My conclusion: using a model derived from a contact pitcher and applying it to a non-contact pitcher does not result in a significant underestimate of pitch count in games where his strikeout count is lower than normal.

Posted 11:50 p.m., September 23, 2003 (#13) - Tangotiger
That's great work!!

Using the basic pitch count estimator on:
IP: 7.7, H: 6.4, BB: 0.7, SO: 3.9, Pitches: 99.5.
I get: 104 pitches.

Applying the basic estimator to RJ:
IP : 7.7, H: 7.0, BB: 0.4, SO: 5.7, Pitches: 103.1.
and I get: 107

and to Schilling:
IP : 7.8, H: 8.2, BB: 0.5, SO: 5.5, Pitches: 108.7.
I get: 112

Since the basic pitch count estimator overvalues the non-Contact pitchers (or games), if I had used the extended pitch count estimator, I'd guess that I'd come in pretty close to the actuals.

It seems therefore that I am probably wrong in my original thought that there is a difference between two similar outcome games from Radke and RJ. Chances are, they both got there the same way.

Very interesting.

Great work!!

Posted 10:16 a.m., September 24, 2003 (#14) - tangotiger
When I use the extended pitch count estimator, and I compare it to the actual pitch count, my estimates are 3 to 4 pitches above the actual in each case.

Therefore, I would say that it is irrelevant what type of pitcher put up those performances, and that my original thought was wrong.

Posted 12:16 p.m., September 25, 2003 (#15) - FJM
Here's a possible explanation for why your theory didn't pan out. I've studied Schilling's performance at various ball-strike counts extensively, and one thing stands out. Hitters go up there hacking at the first pitch that they can put in play far more than they do with most other pitchers. That makes good sense, when you think about it. They know they have almost no chance if he gets 2 strikes on them, so they try to beat him to the punch. I haven't looked at Johnson as closely, but I'll bet they do it to him too. So the reason your model overestimates their counts may have more to do with first and second pitch BIP than it does with 2 strike BIP.