Extrapolated Runs

Extrapolated Runs (XR) is a linear run estimator created by Jim Furtado and was first published in the 1999 Big Bad Baseball Annual. XR was inspired by Paul Johnson's Estimated Runs Produced; Furtado added additional categories and fine-tuned the weights in an attempt to combine accuracy for 1955-1998 major league teams with common sense. It can be considered as the mid-point from results of a pure regression analysis and the theoretical run values from Pete Palmer's Linear Weights.

Furtado presented three versions of XR:

XR = .50*S + .72*D + 1.04*T + 1.44*HR + .34*(W + HB - IW) + .25*IW + .18*SB - .32*CS - .090*(AB - H - K) - .098*K - .37*GIDP + .37*SF + .04*SH

XR Reduced = .50*S + .72*D + 1.04*T + 1.44*HR + .33*(W + HB) + .18*SB - .32*CS - .098*(AB - H)

XR Basic = .50*S + .72*D + 1.04*T + 1.44*HR + .34*W + .18*SB - .32*CS - .096*(AB - H)