Batting Runs

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Batting Runs is a linear weight run estimator, part of the Linear Weights evaluation system developed by Pete Palmer. First introduced in an unpublished submission for The Sporting News in 1969, they have appeared in ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia.

The most recent version of the formula is:

BR = .47H + .38D + .55T + .93HR + .33(W + HB) - ABF*(AB - H) or
BR = .47S + .85D + 1.02T + 1.40HR + .33(W + HB) - ABF*(AB - H)

Where ABF is the coefficient calculated so that the Batting Runs for a league is equal to zero:

ABF = (.47H + .38D + .55T + .93HR + .33(W + HB))/(AB - H)

The ABF will usually be somewhere in the neighborhood of .3. This serves to make Batting Runs an estimator of runs above what an average player would produce in the same number of outs, rather than an absolute number of runs scored as most run estimators are expressed. Using an out value in the neighborhood of .1 results in an estimate of absolute runs.

Palmer gives credit for stolen bases and caught stealing separately, as Basestealing Runs, calculated as .22*SB - .38*CS.

UPDATE (from Tangotiger): Pete Palmer corrected the formula, as 0.85D is much too high. It should be closer to .77D.