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Batting average on balls in play, ground balls and other such beasts (December 24, 2003)

Posted 12:45 p.m., December 24, 2003 (#2) - Rich (homepage)
  As I noted on the blog, my next step will be to introduce speed scores... if I create a group of players 1SD above the Speed Score mean and another group 1SD below, and compare the two, would that suffice?

Thanks for the feedback, very useful.

BABIP and Speed (January 7, 2004)

Posted 4:04 a.m., January 8, 2004 (#5) - Rich(e-mail) (homepage)
  Honestly, I don't understand what the point of this is

MGL, I'm just making my way into baseball research... I've never claimed that anything here was groundbreaking, I was just interested in this issue and thought I would investigate. As I get more savvy with research methods/issues I may be able to do something more worthwhile. Surely it's better that people like me do relatively insignificant research than none at all?

Rich

BABIP and Speed (January 7, 2004)

Posted 5:47 a.m., January 8, 2004 (#6) - Rich
  sorry, that comes across as being too defensive... I just meant to say that everyone has to start somewhere, and by having the likes of Tango and yourself point out oversights (such as the reaching on error thing, which hadn't occurred to me), the likes of myself can learn and improve the quality of what we're doing.

Thanks
Rich

BABIP and Speed (January 7, 2004)

Posted 2:33 p.m., January 8, 2004 (#9) - Rich (homepage)
  http://www.baseballstuff.com/btf/scholars/levitt/articles/speedscores.htm

Interesting work on RBOE.

BABIP and Speed (January 7, 2004)

Posted 6:33 a.m., January 9, 2004 (#18) - Rich
  very interesting.

MGL, do you have values of various outs (K/GB/FB, anything else) to hand please?

Tom Tippett briefly mentions reaching on error in this article:

http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/ichiro.htm

Of the 3357 errors committed by major league fielders last year, 1928 allowed a hitter to reach base. There were 136,861 plate appearances in which the batter put the ball in play, so the average batter reached via error 1.4% of the time.

Ichiro put the ball in play 647 times last year, so an average reach-on-error count would be 647 x .014 = 9. But Ichiro actually reached via error 12 times. That could just be luck, of course, but since we're trying to put an upper limit on the impact of speed, let's be generous and assume that his speed was responsible for all three of those extra times on base.

Overall, 81% of last year's errors put the batter on first, 17% put the batter on second, 1% put the batter on third, .05% saw the runner score on the play, and 0.7% resulted in the batter being put out trying to get an extra base on the error. Ichiro wound up on first ten times (83%) and on second twice (17%), so he didn't get any extra bases on his errors than did the average batter.

cheers
Rich

Poisson Distribution - Win % between two teams (Excel Spreadsheet) (February 20, 2004)

Posted 6:21 p.m., February 21, 2004 (#4) - rich
  Tango, would this work for football (soccer)?

Baseball Prospectus - : Evaluating Defense (March 1, 2004)

Posted 7:33 a.m., March 2, 2004 (#5) - rich (homepage)
  No, you're absolutely right, Tango, I couldn't agree more.

I'd be interested to hear what their response is if you contact them again. Perhaps David Cameron can shed some light on the BP perspective, now he's not involved?

Dick Allen - Rating footballers (alright, soccer players) (March 20, 2004)

Posted 7:18 a.m., March 21, 2004 (#1) - rich (homepage)
  thanks for posting, Tom. Does anyone have any suggestions for refining this approach?

Dick Allen - Rating footballers (alright, soccer players) (March 20, 2004)

Posted 4:17 p.m., March 25, 2004 (#4) - rich(e-mail)
  cricketing baseballer, can you drop me an email? That's interesting to know, and you've hit on a good point. I somehow need to package this in a way that's accessible to joe public.

I've also got a world cup version in mind, but early days...

cheers

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