Batting average on balls in play, ground balls and other such beasts (December 24, 2003)
If you look at the linear weights run values of GB and FB, you will find very little difference.
That is, FB hitters have a lower success rate, given that the ball stayed in the park, than did the GB hitters. On the other hand, the FB hitter will give up more XBH than a GB hitter. Throw in the GIDP, and you have essentially a wash.
However, a FB hitter will get far more HR. For this reason, knowing nothing else about a player, you prefer FB hitters and GB pitchers.
Now, as to the REASON for that you have more GB hits / BIP than FB hits: certainly, speed, as Dick is mentioning, is one. What you want to do is:
1 - create a class of players being fast/slow
2 - show the aggregate GB and FB hits / BIP
This will give you a pretty good indicator as to how much speed contributes to the GB hit / BIP.
--posted by TangoTiger at 10:59 AM EDT
Posted 11:29 a.m.,
December 24, 2003
(#1) -
Voice of Unreason
Can you use LHB vs RHB as a rough approximation for speed? I suppose the distribution of batted balls doesn't even out.
One thing I'd like to put together is a graph of the infield to show how speed and location affect infield putouts. Start with some reasonable approximations for throw velocity and transfer (the time interval from fielding position to release), then start looking at ground ball velocities (too fast and the fielders have trouble covering the gaps, too slow and they can't reach the ball in time).
Posted 12:45 p.m.,
December 24, 2003
(#2) -
Rich
(homepage)
As I noted on the blog, my next step will be to introduce speed scores... if I create a group of players 1SD above the Speed Score mean and another group 1SD below, and compare the two, would that suffice?
Thanks for the feedback, very useful.
Posted 12:59 p.m.,
December 24, 2003
(#3) -
David Smyth
---"That is, FB hitters have a lower success rate, given that the ball stayed in the park, than did the GB hitters. On the other hand, the FB hitter will give up more XBH than a GB hitter. Throw in the GIDP, and you have essentially a wash."
Does that also include the differences in successfully advancing baserunners on GB and FB outs?
Posted 1:52 p.m.,
December 24, 2003
(#4) -
Tangotiger
David: yes.
Voice: good point. We should also include handedness.
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Posted 1:45 p.m.,
December 30, 2003
(#6) -
MGL
Yes, speed has little to do with GB's that go thru the IF, other than the fact that the IF has to play a little more shallow and in some cases play in to protect against a bunt. Speed also affects the ROE on a GB rate.
Also, if we look at hit rates on GB's (both IF hits and hits thru the IF), we are going to get "cross-relationships" because the fast group are probably the lightest and weakest players of the 2 groups, and probably don't hit their GB's as hard as the slow group. Consequently, they will probably get fewer hits thru the IF (with the IF'ers having to play shallower cancellin some of all of that out) and more IF hits, even after controlling for foot speed.
What was the point of this thread?