Felipe Alou: Is He Afraid of the Walk?
by Tangotiger
All I hear about with Felipe Alou is how he is scared of the walk, of how his teams have low on base percentages, of how he wants his hitters to be aggressive. This is based either on anectodal evidence, or by looking at the totals of the team he's managed. Of course, if he had Barry Bonds and Jason Giambi, those team totals wouldn't look so bad, right?
I looked for all players who had at least 300 PA before Alou was their manager, while with Alou, and after Alou. Here are the totals of the Alou Warriors:
| Alou Warrior | preK | preBB | K | BB | postK | postBB |
| Deshields | 0.200 | 0.126 | 0.150 | 0.104 | 0.149 | 0.106 |
| Grissom | 0.151 | 0.071 | 0.116 | 0.062 | 0.144 | 0.056 |
| Spike | 0.100 | 0.089 | 0.068 | 0.106 | 0.075 | 0.101 |
| O'Henry | 0.189 | 0.048 | 0.275 | 0.063 | 0.237 | 0.094 |
| Segui | 0.105 | 0.080 | 0.112 | 0.088 | 0.139 | 0.086 |
| Stevens | 0.221 | 0.065 | 0.210 | 0.084 | 0.250 | 0.099 |
| Walker | 0.213 | 0.083 | 0.153 | 0.082 | 0.134 | 0.098 |
| Wallach | 0.140 | 0.059 | 0.150 | 0.080 | 0.172 | 0.072 |
The "pre" means that's the rate of K or BB per PA prior to joining Alou. The "post" is after leaving Alou. I considered the Alou years to be from 1992 to 2000. Data is through 2001.
So, let's take these one at a time.
Delino Deshields - His K and BB rates while with Alou and after leaving Alou are very similar. Prior to Alou, he was less of a contact hitter.
Marquis Grissom - His BB rates went down before Alou, and continued to go down after Alou. His K rates dropped substantially with Alou, and quickly rose back to his previous level after Alou.
Spike Owen - His K rate plummeted with Alou, and rose slighly afterwards. His walk rates rose with Alou, and dropped slightly afterwards.
O'Henry - His K rate rose substantially with Alou, and went down after Alou. His walk rate rose with Alou, and jumped again after Alou.
David Segui - His K rates rose with Alou, and after Alou. His BB rates were constant.
Larry Walker - His K rates dropped substantially with Alou, and continued to go down after Alou. His walk rates were even before and during Alou, and then rose after Alou.
Tim Wallach - His K rates rose while with, and then after Alou. His walk rates jumped with Alou, and then dipped slightly after Alou.
Certainly not a very common set of results. I realize that age is a factor, and it should be considered in this discussion as well. Of course, we've only got 8 players in our sample. But, this is alot better than relying on visual "evidence".
Totalling it all up, we get the following average rates for the Alou Warriors
Rates pre With post
Strikeouts .165 .154 .163
Walks .078 .084 .089
Non-Contact .243 .238 .252
We can refine the data more to include age, and looking only at recent performances rather than career totals, and looking at league changes. We should not expect to see much impact.
I would suspect in each of these eight cases, the changes in walk and strikeout rates have much more to do with the hitter himself than with any managerial pressure.
Do hitters become more aggressive with Alou? I don't see it.
November 13, 2002 - dlf
There are several roles for a manager. Tango's piece above focus on the teaching end of the job.
I would suggest that a much larger role for the manager is in selecting who is on the team and assigning roles to those players. As such, I think that Alou's club's walk totals are more telling than looking at a handful of players.
In 2000, the Expos were last in the NL with 476 walks. The NL average, excluding Montreal, was a bit over 617.
In 1999, Montreal again was last in walks with 438 with a non-MON average of just under 611.
In 1998, Montreal was 15th of 16 clubs totaling 439 BBs in a league averaging 551.
In 1997, the Expos were back to last (out of 14 clubs now) with 420 walks where the league averaged 560.
In 1996, the Expos were 13th of 14 clubs with 492 BBs while the NL averaged ~539.
Alou left Montreal during the 2001 season. I don't have before and after numbers within the season, but is it coincidence that the club climbed 3 spots (13th) in league BBs that year? Or up to 8th in the first full season without him at the helm? I don't know and I don't think anyone can definitively say.
But I sure would think that the evidence suggests that he certainly doesn't strongly preach plate patience.
November 13, 2002 - David Smyth
Good post. I would add to that that we should also look at the quotes Alou has given over the years with regard to plate discipline and walking. I am not sure what they would indicate, because I never "followed" Alou, but I am willing to guess that he has probably made several statements suggesting that "you can't walk off the island", etc. If he hasn't, then he probably wouldn't be stereotyped in the way that Tango points out. That his influence would not likely "pollute" Bonds or Giambi, if they were on his team, says more about the character of Bonds and Giambi than it does about Alou. C'mon, Tango, you are capable of a more unbiased analysis than this...
November 13, 2002 - RossyW
Even if he [Tim Raines] doesn't make the club, the fact that he is in camp will help a lot of guys - Peter Bergeron, Orlando Cabrera, a lot of guys who, in the minors, didn't have any idea how to take a walk. ... Raines is a master. I'd like to see that happen before I get on, see a couple of those guys with a .400 on-base percentage."
-- Felipe Alou, Expos manager, on having outfielder Tim Raines in spring training for the Expos
November 13, 2002 - Srul Itza
Gee, if Alou feels that way about Raines, how about Rickey? He's available.
Oh, you say they already have a left fielder? Well, maybe Rickey could play first base.
November 13, 2002 - MGL
Tango, this is more than just a controlling for age situtaion. Since players significantly increase their walk rate throught their careers, you definitely need to look at pre versus with or post-Alou, controlling for the normal walk rate progression with time. If you don't, and you study any manager or any team, it will probably look like no manager or team negatively impacts a player or players' walk rate, simply becuase time has elapsed...
I like the study, but unless you use a control group or you control your study group for age or at least for "time progression" I don't think you arre likely to get any meaningful results...
I agree with David that even if Alou does not impact a player's walk rate while he plays for his team and/or after he leaves, his disdain for walks may impact the team by him helping to sign and/or him giving more playing time to "aggressive players". Of course, the Alou quote belies the fact that Alou may have this "anti-walk" philosophy...
BTW, is no one concerned that Alou is obsessed with the sac bunt? He executed 65 non-pitcher bunts this year (which is around 110 attempts). The Expos also had 118 SB and 64 CS. This concerns me too. That's a lot of stolen base attempts with absolutely nothing to show for it. This is definitely not a guy that I would want managing MY team...
November 13, 2002 - tangotiger
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I know that Walker hated the way Felipe would talk to him about hitting approach.
The first poster is doing exactly what I said we shouldn't: looking at team totals.
However, the first poster is correct that Alou does have a choice from within the 15 hitters which ones to play. But Alou was not dealt a good hand. If you're given the bottom of the barrel, you should expect to have low walk totals period.
The team was selected by the GM, and therefore, the low team walk totals is more an indication of the type of team that the GM has selected.
I'm going to continue the analysis tomorrow, looking at it from another angle. I don't know what the results will be, so I'll report whether they favor Alou or not.
November 13, 2002 - KJOK
Tango, a quick look would seem to indicate that AGE has been a big factor in the Expos walk rates. Young hitters walk less, and the Expos have consistently had young teams under Alou. Perhaps it makes sense to look at the walk rate RELATIVE TO THE LEAGUE of each Alou season vs. other teams in history that have the almost same position player average age?
November 13, 2002 - Shaun
II'm inclined to argue that hitters won't change their approach for a manager by the time their in the Major Leagues. Maybe young players will listen to Alou and become less disciplined, but I don't think a veteran team like the Giants will be any worse off when it comes to drawing walks. For the most part, I think you can tell what kind of approach a hitter takes before he's in the big leagues and the manager has little to do with how often his team walks. Approach is developed well before a player becomes a mid- to high-level minor leaguer, so I think approach has little to do with who a player's major league manager is.
November 14, 2002 - Vinay Kumar
MGL, Alou didn't manage this year, he was fired during the 2001 season. In 2001, the Expos (including pitchers) had 64 sac bunts, and 78 in 2000.
November 14, 2002 - MGL
My bad Vinay! Whoever it was ordered an awful lot of bunts! Well, at least I didn't get flamed as I would have on Clutch Hits, will I will not post on anymore, BTW...
I also agree that I don't think that too many batters will change their approach to hitting because of a particular manager or coach...
November 14, 2002 - The Great McBeannie
There aren't too many good managers still waiting for a job, so Alou is the best choice, even if he doesn't have a .500 record from the Expos. I mean, Don Baylor, Jim Frigossi, Buck Martinez, Jack McKeon, Larry Dierker, Joe Kerrigan, they all suck.
Cleveland fans are scared out of our wits about Thome and the Phills'. While Mark Shapiro *thinks* that he doesn't make a decision based on money, greed always seems to win Cleveland players in the end.
I guess, I just have to hope guys like Victor Martinez, Ryan Church, Cliff Lee, Brian Tallet, Coco Crisp, and every other prospect they talk about will come through. All I know is if he signs with Phille, I'll be the first to wave a "Thome sucks" banner.
November 14, 2002 - Philippe
It's Frank Robinson who issued all those bunts and got all those caught stealings this year. He was very much a "small ball" manager the first half of the season, but dropped a lot of those strategies as the season advanced. It's probably a result of not having managed for a decade.
Alou never did make any outlandish "walks are for sissies" statements during his tenure, but he did praise contact hitters often. He was also instrumental in developing the young hitters he took over in Montreal in 1992 (he had managed in the Expos' system for years), and they were generally aggressive contact hitters, except for DeShields. But Tango's study shows that DeShields became more aggressive under Alou, and I'm almost sure that it's a result of his direction. The other hitters developed in the organization had very low walk rates to begin with, and any movement up or down is quite marginal.
Alou's year-by-year walk totals are quite telling. Also telling is that he would use low-obp hitters in the leadoff slot (Roberto Kelly, Terry Jones, Mark Grudzielanek, Milton Bradley...) and never had any inclination to give more patient hitters like Seguignol or Andy Tracy any regular playing time. It would have been interesting to see how he handled Brad Wilkerson, the antithesis of a Alou hitter.
That being said, Alou is very sharp when it comes to in-game strategy and uses his pitching staff well. And when he had the horses in Montreal, he was very successful and extremely popular with the media and fans. The Giants could have done a whole lot worse.
November 14, 2002 - Matthew Rauseo
(www)
MGL, I don't blame you for not posting anymore on clutch hits. You were treated poorly.
As for good managers, why does Davey Johnson sit at home? Larry Dierker has also impressed me despite Mr. McBeannie's concerns.
November 14, 2002 - Sean Smith
Give Felipe a break. In 1994, the Expos were 5th in walks out of 14 teams, before the team was broken up. Sure from 1996 to 2000 the team didn't take many walks. They had no talent. They had few players (Vlad excepted, of course) who could hit, pitch, run, or throw. Is it any surprise they couldn't afford players who walk either? Blame Loria, not Felipe.
November 14, 2002 - bob mong
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I would suggest that a much larger role for the manager is in selecting who is on the team and assigning roles to those players. As such, I think that Alou's club's walk totals are more telling than looking at a handful of players.
Perhaps an interesting study could be done:
Look for players on Alou's teams that he didn't give playing time to, yet deserved it based on their numbers once freed from Alou's control.
As an aside, I was just looking at the 1993 Expos' roster. It was amazingly young. Their were only two players on the entire team who was older than 30: Dennis Martinez (38 in 1993) and Randy Ready (33). Only four players were even 30 or older - Jeff Fassero (30), who pitched 150 pretty good innings in relief (mostly), Dennis Martinez, who pitched 230 about league-average innings as a starter, Bruce Walton (30), who pitched 6 innings, and Ready, the sole 30+ hitter, who split 40 games (150 AB) between 2B and 1B.
Every member of the starting lineup was 27 or younger. Three of them were 24 or younger. The starting lineup, a trio of 26-year-olds, was Moises Alou, Larry Walker, and Marquis Grissom.
John Vander Wal (27), Cliff Floyd (20), Rondell White (21), and Matt Stairs (25) were on the bench. With this amazingly young team, they won 94 games and were 2nd in the NL East.
Is it really any surprise, looking back now, that they were possibly the best team in baseball in 1994? The entire team, pretty much, hit its prime in 1994.
November 14, 2002 - David Smyth
I read MGL and Rauseo's comments here about mgl being flamed and treated poorly. Can someone tell me where to find that? I'd like to see what it was about.
November 14, 2002 - bob mong
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I read MGL and Rauseo's comments here about mgl being flamed and treated poorly. Can someone tell me where to find that? I'd like to see what it was about.
I believe this is the thread.
MGL's original post. Flame #1. MGL's response. Flame #2. A more nuanced response to MGL's response.
All in all, I don't think the episode was that big of a deal, but maybe I am referencing the wrong situation (though I haven't seen anything else that would fit the bill).
November 14, 2002 - MGL
David, it wasn't so much being flamed (I can take it and I bring some of it on due to my sometimes "in-your-face" style of critiquing other people's comments, of course), but the childish posts on Clutch Hits. I am not used to those kinds of "general circulation" boards I guess (I'm used to FanHome, although it has died since it changed venues - mainly becuase I think the new venue sucks - hard to maneuver, etc.).
Actually I can't believe the number of people who take the time to read Primer (or even know about it) and then take further time to post something that belongs in an AOL teen chat room. Also, I have little patience for unimformed, misguided persons who are not willing to learn.
If you want to see some examples, I guess look at some of the posts on the Tejada MVP thread and the Clayton versus Ordonez thread (I think). It's not that big a deal. I don't care much about the flames. It's just too frustrating and time consuming to wade through all the crap on Clutch Hits; I've got better things to do (not that I ever get to them). Thanks for some of the sympathy though guys!
Although my style is not always conducive to "acceptance" (i.e., I often annoy and piss people off) I try and add as much value as I can to these boards as well as to the field of sabermetrics in general - not becuase it matters one iota to the general population (it doesn't) or not because it makes the game of baseball any better (it doesn't), but simpy because I like it and it keeps me out of trouble (and out of class often-times - but that's another story - at least I only have one more semester to go)...
November 14, 2002 - David Smyth
I read the mgl stuff. It wasn't near as bad as I expected. I mean, it's not like someone attacked his ethnicity or anything. As mgl said, it goes with the territory. When you position yourself as an expert (as he definitely is in certain areas), there are always people looking for any small mistake to take a shot at you. I guess it makes them feel one-up. MGL's mistake (whatever you want to call it) was implying (even if unintended) that the GM was only interested in Williams because of an ability misjudjement, when in all likely reality there are significant financial mitigating circumstances. And that is certainly something which should have been pointed out. Only not so rudely, of course...
And as far as mgl not posting anymore on Clutch Hits, it's none of my business, of course, but isn't that akin to "cutting off one's nose to spite one's face"? I mean, there are certainly high-quality discussions on Clutch Hits. You just have to pick your spots, and have a good idea who you are interacting with...
November 14, 2002 - Shredder
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You call that getting flamed? Brothah, if you think that's getting flamed, then I hope you never get into a real flame war. :-)
November 15, 2002 - Jonathan
"Well, maybe Rickey could play first base."
Wow. I'm sitting here in stunned awe. That'll teach us to imagine that defense doesn't matter from first base.
I'd rather have him in center field.
November 20, 2002 - Dan Crosswell
I am a historian trained to examine the sources. Here is the historical evidence on the Alou paranoia for taking a pitch. Felipe Alou's lifetime OBA was .348, a mere .048 above his lifetime batting average. Configured for a 162 game season, he drew 33 BB [16% IBB]. Matty drew 30 BB for 162 games; Jesus an amazing 16. Alou infected the entire Montreal chain--check the numbers. It is not only about drawing BB, it is going deep in the count. And as something of a purist, what irritated me most about his Expo teams was their miserable execution on defense. They had the fundamentals of a bad junior high team. As a manager, Alou remains grossly overrated.