Chance of Winning a Baseball Game, part 3

© Tangotiger

The chance of the home team winning, at the start of each inning (or bases empty with no outs), based on probability theory.
Assumptions:

• Both teams are equals at every point in the game.
• Home Field Advantage does exist.
• Based on a 4.3 Runs-per-game environment (4.5 for the Home team, and 4.1 for the Visiting team).

See also Probability Theory: both teams equals, no HFA
See also Empirical Data
 

		Home Score Differential
Inning		-4	-3	-2	-1	0	1	2	3	4
Top	1	0.186	0.255	0.340	0.437	0.539
Bottom	1	0.209	0.285	0.376	0.479	0.585	0.685	0.770	0.839	0.891
Top	2	0.168	0.238	0.325	0.427	0.537	0.644	0.739	0.815	0.874
Bottom	2	0.191	0.268	0.362	0.471	0.586	0.693	0.783	0.852	0.903
Top	3	0.150	0.219	0.308	0.416	0.535	0.651	0.751	0.829	0.887
Bottom	3	0.171	0.247	0.346	0.462	0.588	0.704	0.798	0.868	0.916
Top	4	0.129	0.196	0.287	0.401	0.533	0.661	0.766	0.846	0.902
Bottom	4	0.149	0.224	0.325	0.450	0.590	0.719	0.817	0.885	0.931
Top	5	0.107	0.170	0.261	0.383	0.531	0.674	0.786	0.865	0.918
Bottom	5	0.124	0.196	0.299	0.434	0.594	0.739	0.840	0.905	0.946
Top	6	0.084	0.141	0.229	0.357	0.528	0.693	0.810	0.887	0.935
Bottom	6	0.098	0.164	0.266	0.410	0.601	0.768	0.869	0.928	0.962
Top	7	0.059	0.108	0.189	0.320	0.526	0.723	0.842	0.913	0.954
Bottom	7	0.070	0.127	0.222	0.374	0.611	0.812	0.905	0.953	0.977
Top	8	0.036	0.071	0.138	0.263	0.524	0.771	0.884	0.942	0.972
Bottom	8	0.043	0.085	0.165	0.312	0.627	0.882	0.949	0.978	0.990
Top	9	0.015	0.033	0.075	0.168	0.522	0.853	0.937	0.973	0.988
Bottom	9	0.018	0.040	0.091	0.204	0.655