Chance of Winning a Baseball Game, Part 2

© Tangotiger

Actual times home team won under various inning/score situations. Results based on empirical data from 1979 to 1990 compiled by Phil Birnbaum.

The first cell is read as "The home team, in the top of the 1st, with 0 outs and bases empty, down by 4, won 24.4% of its games".

See also Probability Theory: both teams equals, no HFA
See also Probability Theory: both teams equals, with HFA
 

		Home Score Differential
Inning		-4	-3	-2	-1	0	1	2	3	4
Top	1	0.244	0.280	0.360	0.456	0.542
Bottom	1	0.211	0.328	0.381	0.488	0.589	0.685	0.752	0.859	0.960
Top	2	0.165	0.262	0.308	0.420	0.532	0.645	0.745	0.823	0.885
Bottom	2	0.194	0.261	0.337	0.460	0.579	0.693	0.786	0.848	0.937
Top	3	0.142	0.215	0.296	0.404	0.528	0.656	0.764	0.831	0.895
Bottom	3	0.170	0.238	0.341	0.461	0.575	0.705	0.804	0.868	0.934
Top	4	0.120	0.196	0.276	0.395	0.522	0.656	0.771	0.847	0.923
Bottom	4	0.139	0.220	0.314	0.447	0.584	0.725	0.829	0.893	0.935
Top	5	0.098	0.159	0.245	0.363	0.528	0.682	0.791	0.875	0.919
Bottom	5	0.117	0.179	0.278	0.419	0.592	0.743	0.853	0.912	0.942
Top	6	0.081	0.132	0.222	0.342	0.526	0.691	0.816	0.903	0.936
Bottom	6	0.087	0.156	0.260	0.402	0.599	0.773	0.875	0.938	0.967
Top	7	0.052	0.094	0.176	0.305	0.517	0.729	0.854	0.927	0.962
Bottom	7	0.072	0.109	0.213	0.352	0.609	0.821	0.916	0.961	0.980
Top	8	0.040	0.055	0.119	0.245	0.521	0.780	0.899	0.952	0.975
Bottom	8	0.051	0.067	0.141	0.294	0.634	0.899	0.954	0.987	0.991
Top	9	0.017	0.026	0.066	0.151	0.518	0.873	0.944	0.979	0.989
Bottom	9	0.017	0.034	0.076	0.189	0.649