Chance of Winning a Baseball Game

© Tangotiger

The chance of the home team winning, at the start of each inning (or bases empty with no outs), based on probability theory.
Assumptions:

• Both teams are equals at every point in the game.
• No Home Field Advantage exists.
• Based on a 4.3 Runs-per-game environment.

See also Empirical Data
See also Probability Theory: both teams equals, with HFA
 

		Home Score Differential
Inning		-4	-3	-2	-1	0	1	2	3	4
Top	1	0.160	0.225	0.305	0.398	0.500
Bottom	1	0.182	0.254	0.341	0.441	0.547	0.650	0.741	0.815	0.873
Top	2	0.146	0.211	0.293	0.391	0.500	0.609	0.707	0.789	0.854
Bottom	2	0.167	0.239	0.330	0.436	0.551	0.661	0.755	0.831	0.887
Top	3	0.130	0.194	0.278	0.382	0.500	0.618	0.722	0.806	0.870
Bottom	3	0.150	0.222	0.316	0.429	0.554	0.674	0.773	0.849	0.903
Top	4	0.113	0.175	0.260	0.371	0.500	0.629	0.740	0.825	0.887
Bottom	4	0.131	0.202	0.298	0.420	0.559	0.691	0.795	0.870	0.920
Top	5	0.094	0.152	0.238	0.355	0.500	0.645	0.762	0.848	0.906
Bottom	5	0.110	0.178	0.276	0.407	0.566	0.714	0.821	0.893	0.938
Top	6	0.073	0.127	0.210	0.333	0.500	0.667	0.790	0.873	0.927
Bottom	6	0.087	0.150	0.246	0.386	0.574	0.747	0.853	0.919	0.957
Top	7	0.052	0.097	0.174	0.299	0.500	0.701	0.826	0.903	0.948
Bottom	7	0.063	0.116	0.207	0.353	0.587	0.795	0.894	0.947	0.974
Top	8	0.031	0.064	0.128	0.247	0.500	0.753	0.872	0.936	0.969
Bottom	8	0.038	0.078	0.155	0.297	0.605	0.872	0.943	0.975	0.990
Top	9	0.013	0.030	0.070	0.158	0.500	0.842	0.930	0.970	0.987
Bottom	9	0.016	0.038	0.086	0.194	0.634