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Baseball Player Values (November 22, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 5:18 p.m.,
November 22, 2003
(#2) -
pyrite
This is great stuff. The methodology could be refined (especially if only one year of data is used), but this is the largest amount of win probabilty player data I've come across.
So many cool things to note when looking at the data:
Barry has eight "MVP" seasons thru 2002. I assume 2003 would be his ninth. Wow.
Relief pitchers have a tremendous impact compared to context-free metrics.
I wonder how large the skew is between computer modeled probabilities and actual data in individial seasons, especially for high leverage situations. E.g., does the poor work of Jose Mesa, Mike Wiliiams, Antonio Alfonseca, et al, lead to Gagne's 2002 season being overrated or does the sub-optimal use of relievers in high-leverage situations just bring the late-inning probabilities more in line with average performance?