See copyright notice at the bottom of this page.
List of All Posters
How are Runs Really Created
August 15, 2002 - newsense
The impression I am getting is this: 1) Each defensive environment (pitcher, fielders, ballpark)produces a different set of run expectations for an offensive player. 2) The defensive environment can be described in a 24 cell run expectation table. 3) Each offensive event (1B, 2B, BB, GIDP, etc.) produces one or more(depending on what runners can do) possible transitions in the run expectation table. The event can be valued by the changes in run expectations weighted by the probabilities of initial states and outcomes.
If this is correct, the challenge, it seems to me, is to estimate both the run expectation table and the probabilities of the initial states as a function of the defensive environment. A reasonable proxy for the defensive environment might be the pitcher's park-adjusted runs allowed per 9 innings (RA). These could be estimated for typical levels of RA and interpolated as necessary.
Copyright notice
Comments on this page were made by person(s) with the same handle, in various comments areas, following Tangotiger © material, on Baseball Primer. All content on this page remain the sole copyright of the author of those comments.
If you are the author, and you wish to have these comments removed from this site, please send me an email (tangotiger@yahoo.com), along with (1) the URL of this page, and (2) a statement that you are in fact the author of all comments on this page, and I will promptly remove them.