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Cities with best players (October 23, 2003)

Discussion Thread

Posted 10:13 a.m., October 24, 2003 (#22) - mathteamcoach
  Instead of discussing where players played, wouldn't it be more interesting to discuss place of birth?


HOOPSWORLD.com Review: Pro Basketball Prospectus 2003-04 Edition (November 18, 2003)

Discussion Thread

Posted 10:07 a.m., November 25, 2003 (#12) - mathteamcoach(e-mail)
  A question for those who create their own simialrity scores and/or projections:

What program or programming language do you use?

I have lots of ideas about creating projections and similarity scores, not only for baseball, but also for basketball. My problem is that I can't seem to organize all of the data that I have efficiently enough to make using excel easy to generate projections/similarity scores. I have a Master's in mathematics, so the statistics is not my problem -- my problem is getting the computer to cooperate with my ideas in the most efficient way possible.

Can anyone offer some suggestions?

You can email me if it is easier: mathteamcoach@charter.net


Dick Allen's Baseball Blog - Baserunning (December 1, 2003)

Discussion Thread

Posted 3:37 p.m., December 4, 2003 (#1) - mathteamcoach
  I'm feeling bad that this post has gotten no interest. Dick Allen, you have a nice blog, keep it going!

Are these numbers accounting for pinch runners? It doesn't seem so. Many of the 'A' rated players are pinch-runner types, and if you are dividing the number of times the player scored by the number of times he reached first on his own merit, you are missing all of the times he was put on 1st or 2nd or 3rd base by his manager.

Run scoring is such a team-oriented statistic, I don't know how much this number tells us. Maybe someone could answer, or already has answered, this question: when a runner scores a run, how much of the credit should he get for that run? Pinch-runners certainly deserve a lot less than the guys who batted (or walked or whatever) their way onto the bases.


Marcel, The Monkey, Forecasting System (December 1, 2003)

Discussion Thread

Posted 2:02 p.m., December 4, 2003 (#27) - mathteamcoach
  Who is Marcel named after: Marcel Lachemann, Marcelino Lopez or
Marcelino Solis?


Marcel, The Monkey, Forecasting System (December 1, 2003)

Discussion Thread

Posted 3:26 p.m., December 4, 2003 (#29) - mathteamcoach
  Koko, I know. Marcel? I would never have known that. I am an element of the set of people who have never sat through an entire episode of Friends. I wonder how many of us there are?

Anyway, now when I play the 20th anniv. edition of Trivial Pursuit, I'll know the answer to the corresponding question.


Century-old math problem may have been solved (January 8, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 12:17 p.m., January 9, 2004 (#2) - mathteamcoach
  Yes, but can he solve DIPS?

Maybe DIPS is a Hausdorff space.



Obscure Rule Flags Students Who Sharply Improve SAT Scores (January 21, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 9:21 a.m., January 22, 2004 (#4) - mathteamcoach
  I think that this allegation is similar to the situation surrounding Stand and Deliver , the movie highlighting the somewhat-true story of Jaime Escalante's Advanced Placement calculus students. They were accused of cheating on the AP calculus exam because most of the students' incorrect answers where the same. It turned out that Escanlante taught his students various "shortcuts" to solving particular type of problems that didn't work in certain situations. So, the algorithms that they learned produced the same wrong answers for certain problems.

By the way, I am a high school teacher, and have proctored the SAT at our school. By my impressions, it seems that there are different forms of the SAT given to students in the same room. Then, I think, the seating plan for the students ensures that one particular form is not near another form, so that if someone does try to copy answers, they would be wrong.

There is a good book indicting the SAT and all of the conspiracy theories surrounding it called None of the Above


Obscure Rule Flags Students Who Sharply Improve SAT Scores (January 21, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 11:15 a.m., January 22, 2004 (#8) - mathteamcoach (homepage)
  Apparently, ETS, the organization that administers the SAT, has lost cases like this that have been tried in court. See the homepage link for a 1995 case in NY.


Obscure Rule Flags Students Who Sharply Improve SAT Scores (January 21, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 3:46 p.m., January 22, 2004 (#12) - mathteamcoach
  Does Mathteamcoach/anyone know of a source for determining what the historical average SAT scores have been?

This is a difficult question to answer because, in the last 10-15 years, the College Board has tinkered with the SAT and its scoring system so many times I lost track of what is significant and what isn't. First, before say 1995 (approximately), the SAT itself changed very little. At the inception of the SAT, the scores were "centered" at 500 (meaning the average score on either the verbal or math section was 500 on a scale of 200 to 800). Over time, as more and more students took the exam, the average scores continued to fall until in the late 80's when the average scores were in the low to mid 400's. In 1995 (or so), the college board decided to re-center the scores so that the average returned back to 500. So, in effect, a scaled score of say 450 in 1985 was now equivalent to a 500 in 1995. In addition to toying with the scaled scores, a lot of the exams content has been changed. Writing portions have been added, certain types of multiple choice questions have been removed, etc... All of this makes it difficult to compare SAT across different periods of time. There is a book that talks about this in much more depth entitled A Manufactured Crisis , published in about 1994 or 1995 (pre-re-centering of the SAT). The book is a very liberal look at education in America, but it does contain an enlightening chapter discussing the history of the SAT.

What the breakdowns might be by region, school districts, etc. Lefty vs. righty splits :)

What state are you living in? In Massachusetts, every high school publishes a school profile containing all kinds of data: SAT scores, # of National Merit Finalists, % of students who go onto college, etc. To get these profiles, you need only inquire to the school.

Do private schools generally publish their student's average scores? Sources?

Yes. I assume that individual private schools would be happy to give you their "profile" as well. In Massachusetts, there are many public school that are MUCH better than some of the private and parochial schools (in my opinion -- I have taught in a private, catholic-affiliated high school and also in a high school in an adjacent town. I would actaully prefer to send my child to a public school before a private school). So, be careful; don't always assume that a private school is a better option. The exceptions are the schools that charge college-like tuition fees (Exeter, Choate, Deerfield Acad., etc.)

Of course, it is ultimately a Moneyball question. One has to compare the costs (including pesky taxes) and benefits. I may be a Yankee fan, but I may have to spend my educational dollars like Oakland.

Yup. There is a strong correlation between socio-economic status of a community and their quality of education. I haven't studied the issue, but the towns in Massachusetts that have the highest average SAT scores are certainly the towns with the highest median home price. Taxes are through the roof, and even when tax rates don't go up here, property taxes still go up because real estate in Massachusetts is like gold and the assessments are increasing like crazy.


Obscure Rule Flags Students Who Sharply Improve SAT Scores (January 21, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 3:47 p.m., January 22, 2004 (#13) - mathteamcoach
  are the italics gone?


Obscure Rule Flags Students Who Sharply Improve SAT Scores (January 21, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 3:48 p.m., January 22, 2004 (#14) - mathteamcoach
  I would like to announce that this is the first time I have screwed up the italics in any post! And on Chinese New Year to boot! Sorry guys


Obscure Rule Flags Students Who Sharply Improve SAT Scores (January 21, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 9:41 a.m., January 23, 2004 (#25) - mathteamcoach
  Again, I teach high school math, but not prob. and stats. However, in every class that I teach, I try to fit in two topics: the Monty Hall problem and Bayes Theorem. Regardless of my presentation, 1/4 of the students will "get it" and think that its the neatest thing they have ever learned about mathematics (and I'll get responses such as, "why can't every math class teach things like this!"), about 1/2 won't have any clue about the ideas, and the final 1/4 will disagree with what I have to say and try to find ways to refute it or simply just not believe it.

I hate to make a blanket statement, but there really is an "innumeracy" problem in the US. In reference to the "what statistics should matter to the average fan post" in clutch hits, if you ask the "average" fan how to compute ERA, I bet you'll get a lot of "I dunno"s, or some response that has elements of the right method. But, if you ask them if a particular ERA is good or bad, they'll know immediately. What's my point? I guess its not that people don't inuitively understand numbers, they just do not know how to look beyond the numbers.


Baseball Graphs - FIP and DER (January 24, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 12:44 p.m., January 25, 2004 (#2) - mathteamcoach
  Very interesting.

Could the advent of playing at night under the lights have anything to do with the increase of DER around 1940? I don't think I have the tools to investigate this question, but maybe fielding is easier at night than during the day. IIRC, all ML ballparks had lights by 1940, except for Wrigley. It seems counter-intuitive, I know, but a flyball at night might be eaiser to track with the eyes given the fact that of having a white object against a black background.


Baseball Graphs - FIP and DER (January 24, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 4:51 p.m., January 25, 2004 (#3) - mathteamcoach
  I have begun to answer my own question:

Taking the day/night pitching data from yahoo! for the 2003 American League season, the BABIP during the day was 0.298. At night the BABIP was 0.302. When I removed the "dome" teams, the difference only shrunk by a point (0.299 during the day, 0.302 at night). So, for the 2003 AL at least, it is slightly easier to get a hit at night.


Baseball Graphs - FIP and DER (January 24, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 11:07 a.m., January 26, 2004 (#5) - mathteamcoach
  Studes: where exactly is that peak in DER? Is it 1941? According to


Baseball Graphs - FIP and DER (January 24, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 11:08 a.m., January 26, 2004 (#6) - mathteamcoach
  Studes: where exactly is that peak in DER? Is it 1941? According to Rawlings this is when they "invented" a deep-well pocket glove. The "web" of the glove was invented in the 1920.


Baseball Graphs - FIP and DER (January 24, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 11:09 a.m., January 26, 2004 (#7) - mathteamcoach
  Sorry. That's what happen when you forget a ".


Baseball Graphs - FIP and DER (January 24, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 2:01 p.m., January 26, 2004 (#10) - mathteamcoach
  Here's a basic article on glove history and design at, of all places, Popular Mechanics. It mentions the 1920 web invention, the fact that plastic inserts were first used in 1941, and the fact that most OFs use a glove that is longer than the rulebook allows:

Major League Baseball rules state that a player's glove cannot be longer than 12 in., measured from the heel to the tip of the index finger. Still, most manufacturers make a 13-in.-long glove, which is used by most major-league outfielders, including All-Star Barry Bonds of the San Francisco Giants.


Super Bowl Notebook: Is Adams a genius' genius? (January 29, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 10:36 a.m., January 29, 2004 (#3) - mathteamcoach (homepage)
  Here is a related article from the Boston Globe about Jim Schwartz, defensive coordiantor of the Tenn. Titans (link in homepage).


Smack the Pingu (January 29, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 9:30 a.m., January 30, 2004 (#5) - mathteamcoach
  Since this is a thread about hitting a penguin, I think its ok for me to digress even further:

I am a high school teacher and I have been asking my students to predict the score of the Super Bowl (we're from Massachusetts, and yes, several students have picked the Panthers). I told them that the person whose guess is the "closest" will get a few bonus points on their upcoming test. I did this without telling them how I'll figure out what "closest" means and knowing that depending on how "closest" is defined, there may be more than one winner. I was hoping it would create some discussion and get them thinking about math that wasn't just about quadrilaterals or conic sections.

People who have time to waste on a Friday, your assignment is this: come up with a technique or definition that would find the "closest" score.

I'll post this in clutch hits, when the Primer Lounge is open.

Oh, by the way, the negative AB in the penguin game was mine. It hapened on the first AB after I opened the application. It was a swing and a miss, and I haven't been able to reproduce it. So, the Mendoza Line = the matheteamcoach line for artic baseball.


How Valuable Is Base Running and Who Are the Best and the Worst? (February 10, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 8:41 p.m., February 10, 2004 (#4) - mathteamcoach
  On Manny...(not too many outfielders on the worst list - is he slow or dumb on the bases?)

Both.


FANTASY CENTRAL (February 21, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 2:01 p.m., February 24, 2004 (#34) - mathteamcoach
  Is there an excel function to test for "normalcy"?

There is a test, but i do not know if it exists in Excel.


FANTASY CENTRAL (February 21, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 2:10 p.m., February 24, 2004 (#35) - mathteamcoach
  Is there an excel function to test for "normalcy"?

Actually, if you have the z scores for the data set, you can determine whether the data is actually normal. For example, with wins, plot the z scores versus the wins. The closer the points on the plot are to a straight line, the stronger the evidence that the data were drawn from a normal population.


FANTASY CENTRAL (February 21, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 2:33 p.m., February 24, 2004 (#39) - mathteamcoach
  if the z-score is just (wins- mean wins)/ stdv then z-score v. wins has to be a straight line.

You have the z-scores correct, but they do not have to be a straight line if the population they were drawn from is not normal. Am I wrong?


Silver: The Science of Forecasting (March 12, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 8:32 a.m., March 13, 2004 (#13) - mathteamcoach
  J. Cross,

What are the chances that we can get Marcel in on your comparsion of ZiPS and PECOTA?


Sophomore Slumps? (March 23, 2004)

Discussion Thread

Posted 1:03 p.m., March 23, 2004 (#2) - mathteamcoach
  No mention of regression to the mean?


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