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Game-Calling Revisited - Chris Dial (August 16, 2003)

Posted 8:03 p.m., August 24, 2003 (#5) - acerimusdux
  My problem with most of the discussion on this subject is that there is far too little recognition of the substantial run value that could result from even a "relatively small" impact of catchers game calling relative to pitching and fielding.

For example, a full time starting catcher might be expected to catch 6 times as many innings as a typical starting pitcher throws (strictly a guess, for something I could have easily calculated).

Suppose for example, that the catching position is able to reduce it's team's RA by as much only 5%. That might be far less than the impact of pitchers or even defensive fielding on RA. But the pitching values will be split up between 5 or more starters, and a relieving corps, while the fielding values with be affected by all 9 positions. Game calling by contrast will normally be mostly done by a starting catcher and a primary backup, so only 2 players will share any credit for most value that exists there.

For a team with a typical RA of 4.62 per game, if they could reduce tha by about 5% to about 4.40, would save over 35 runs (.22*162) over a season.

Likewise, suppose a catching staff is able to reduce a teams BB rate by 10%. Say the team has a typical rate of 3.30 BB/9IP. Lets suppose that is reduced to 3.00 BB/9IP. This would prevent maybe 48 walks (.30*160). Lets suppose they are replaced by balls in play and outs according to a H$ of .280. That would mean an average of 13.44 more hits and 34.56 more outs. Using .35 for the value of the walks saved, .56 for the value of non HR hits, and .30 for the additional outs, the expected value of the runs saved is roughly:

(.35*48)+(.30*34.5)-(.56* 13.5)= 19.6 runs

If it is possible that there are even a few catchers in baseball that are capable of saving as many as 20-40 runs due to game calling ability, that would be extremely significant. And I've seen nothing yet that seems to preclude this possibility.

If game calling ability in fact has any significant defensive impact, when added to the other aspects of catcher defense we are already able to accounnt for, it well may be that the catchers position is the most important defensive position in baseball.

Which is why I aprecciate the fine work that is being done here on the subject so much, as it is getting us closer to being able to measure this. But we clearly haven't gone far enough yet to say anything conclusive about the value of game calling.

Game-Calling Revisited - Chris Dial (August 16, 2003)

Posted 8:03 p.m., August 24, 2003 (#6) - acerimusdux
  My problem with most of the discussion on this subject is that there is far too little recognition of the substantial run value that could result from even a "relatively small" impact of catchers game calling relative to pitching and fielding.

For example, a full time starting catcher might be expected to catch 6 times as many innings as a typical starting pitcher throws (strictly a guess, for something I could have easily calculated).

Suppose for example, that the catching position is able to reduce it's team's RA by as much only 5%. That might be far less than the impact of pitchers or even defensive fielding on RA. But the pitching values will be split up between 5 or more starters, and a relieving corps, while the fielding values with be affected by all 9 positions. Game calling by contrast will normally be mostly done by a starting catcher and a primary backup, so only 2 players will share any credit for most value that exists there.

For a team with a typical RA of 4.62 per game, if they could reduce tha by about 5% to about 4.40, would save over 35 runs (.22*162) over a season.

Likewise, suppose a catching staff is able to reduce a teams BB rate by 10%. Say the team has a typical rate of 3.30 BB/9IP. Lets suppose that is reduced to 3.00 BB/9IP. This would prevent maybe 48 walks (.30*160). Lets suppose they are replaced by balls in play and outs according to a H$ of .280. That would mean an average of 13.44 more hits and 34.56 more outs. Using .35 for the value of the walks saved, .56 for the value of non HR hits, and .30 for the additional outs, the expected value of the runs saved is roughly:

(.35*48)+(.30*34.5)-(.56* 13.5)= 19.6 runs

If it is possible that there are even a few catchers in baseball that are capable of saving as many as 20-40 runs due to game calling ability, that would be extremely significant. And I've seen nothing yet that seems to preclude this possibility.

If game calling ability in fact has any significant defensive impact, when added to the other aspects of catcher defense we are already able to accounnt for, it well may be that the catchers position is the most important defensive position in baseball.

Which is why I aprecciate the fine work that is being done here on the subject so much, as it is getting us closer to being able to measure this. But we clearly haven't gone far enough yet to say anything conclusive about the value of game calling.

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