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Results of the Forecast Experiment, Part 2 (October 27, 2003)

Posted 2:18 a.m., October 31, 2003 (#73) - Snowboy
  If anyone has done an analysis of PECOTA's 2003 predictions/results, I'd like to read it. Has it been done yet?

Building the 2004 Expos (December 8, 2003)

Posted 8:36 p.m., December 9, 2003 (#7) - Snowboy
  This was an extremely frustrating development. I believe that there has been some market adjustment going on this winter, not collusion. Except perhaps in this Vlad case. I can't believe that there has been no report of any team offering him a contract.
(Worried about giving the Expos a draft pick if signed him too early? Please. Some teams think so highly of draft picks that they are willing to forego them to get their hands on Michael Tucker; this is Vladimir Guerrero we're talking about!)
The Expos reportedly offered him a 5 yr, $60M contract (not A-Rod money, but not league minimum.) Offering arbitration could have allowed negots to continue.
In addition, Vlad could have always turned them down. Or signed with another team regardless, thus the Expos get a pick.
The Vlad situation is the only one which makes me think collusion. Or at the very least "Commissioner Interference."

The 2004 Marcels (March 10, 2004)

Posted 4:20 p.m., March 13, 2004 (#23) - Snowboy
  Thanks for the work, Tango.
I'm sorry to focus on one player out of 839, because I know that's not what you want to hear. But what's going on with Carlos Beltran?
    3YrAvg     Marcel
Runs   107        91
HR      26        22
RBI   102        87
SB      35         27

580 PA is not a problem. I can't find an error (ie other Royals look okay, his numbers are all there in the 01-03 file, Adrian Beltre's numbers look reasonable). But something doesn't look right? What does Marcel see that I can't? Is Marcel scared of only 14 doubles in 2003?

The 2004 Marcels (March 10, 2004)

Posted 4:22 p.m., March 13, 2004 (#24) - Snowboy
  Oh, and reason #281 to use your own brain, and not just live by Marcel alone: Predicted HR by Jason Tyner = 3.

But again, thanks Tango.