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Marcel, The Monkey, Forecasting System (December 1, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 7:09 p.m.,
December 1, 2003
(#18) -
Ryan
Should certain components (BABIP) be regressed more than others (K, HR)?
A method for determining the probability that a given team was the true best team in some particular year (January 6, 2004)
Posted 6:30 p.m.,
January 6, 2004
(#7) -
Ryan
Just for Devil's advocacy and a non SABR approach, the best team is that which can conquer two separate seasons, regular and playoff. I really do appreciate the statistical approach to baseball, and certainly am glad it has become so prominent, but I want to ask you guys something as a someone not as familiar with statistical method. Is there an equalibreum between statistical and tradition evaluation of baseball?
Clutch Hitting: Fact or Fiction? (February 2, 2004)
Posted 9:08 p.m.,
February 2, 2004
(#1) -
Ryan
(homepage)
The author notes that the "clutch" hitters are mostly singles hitters and the "chokers" are mostly power hitters.
Is it possible that the skill that is being detected is not clutch hitting, but the ability to hit certain types of pitchers?
As the author notes, the at-bats being defined as clutch are frequently save situations, so a lot of the pitchers being faced are probably closers or other power pitchers.
I've never seen a study, but I've always been curious whether a contact hitter like Gwynn or Ichiro will outperform a homerun/walk/strikeout type of hitter (i.e. Thome) when facing the best pitchers. According to DIPS, a pitcher can keep down his walks and homeruns, but has little control over balls in play. So, wouldn't a contact hitter who rarely walks or strikesout, do almost as well against the best pitchers as he does against the worst? He'd strikeout a little more, and walk a little less, but all those balls in play should still be hits just as often.
Of course, that wouldn't explain why there is even greater statistical significance when defining clutch as RISP. I'd be curious to see if that definition produced a similar list of "clutch hitters" and "chokers".
Blog Entry of the Week (February 20, 2004)
Posted 9:09 p.m.,
February 20, 2004
(#11) -
Ryan
Reading this just made me think of something... I hate to dredge the old Moneyball debate, especially if this angle has already been covered somewhere... but the whole thing about OBP being worth 3x as much as SLG.
What if Michael Lewis was hearing something about getting on base was three times as important as power, and transcirbed that to SLG instead of ISO? Maybe OBP is 3x as valuable as ISO? I dunno... I'll see if I can take a look at that later.