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Forecasting 2003
February 13, 2003 - Roger
This will be an interesting but far from definitive exercise for one major reason. The number of cases is so small that any of the forecasts might win by chance alone. Or, another way of putting it is that the results will be affected greatly by the cases that were initially selected and how much the performance of those players is affected by (good or bad) luck or chance. It would be far more useful if you had selected a couple of hundred players at random.
Forecasting 2003
February 16, 2003 - Roger
Be careful what you're saying about Primates. You know the old story about how if you put 1000 monkeys in front of typewriters sooner or later they would hack out a perfect copy of a Shakespeare play. Surely you weren't referring to that kind of primate. (But I think you've got the idea right -- given enough Primates hacking away at Tangotiger's Task, somebody by chance alone is going to beat the "experts."
Of course a major flaw in the argument about the 1000 monkeys is that not one of those primates would be able to read or use the printed output. Furthermore, there would be far far more "near misses" to the perfect manuscript -- oh, maybe with a few typographical errors somewhere -- than there would be "perfect" manuscripts, and wouldn't it be a shame if nobody were intelligent enough to realize that almost is close enough?
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