Individual Poster Page

See copyright notice at the bottom of this page.

List of All Posters

2003 Win Shares, updated (June 24, 2003)

Posted 6:09 p.m., June 25, 2003 (#8) - Pete(e-mail)
  One reason Nomo and Gagne are so close is because Win Shares deducts claim points from pitchers who don't create enough runs offensively. Nomo, 3 for 31 with 2 walks, loses 3.5 claim points from hitting. Gagne, without an AB, loses none.

The Phillies' catchers have a claim percentage of .126 (before the .2 is subtracted), with 0 points on the 50 point scale (11.5% CS opposed to the NL average of 31.7%) and just 5 points on the 30 point scale (E% of .128 opposed to the NL average of .076). This leads to the Phillies' catchers getting 0 fielding WS. James mentions on pp. 68-69 of Win Shares that this has happened before to a position on five other teams , including the catchers on the 1987 Texas Rangers.

2003 Park Factors (October 1, 2003)

Posted 11:52 a.m., October 11, 2003 (#28) - Pete(e-mail)
  Dave,

You're at least partially right about Redmond dragging down Rodriguez. The only place I can see an impact is in stolen bases.

Marlin catchers other than Rodriguez [Castro and Redmond] were terrible at stopping stolen bases (30 of 35 successful), while other Astro catchers were just slightly better than Ausmus (18 of 29). If we assume that the Marlins' catchers have the same SB% allowed as Rodriguez, Rodriguez's fielding win shares would increase by about 2.

However, Ausmus does rank ahead of Rodriguez in other, not so obvious, areas. Namely:

- Ausmus had more assists (76 to 47). [Other Astro catchers had 11 while other Marlin catchers had 13.]
- Astro catchers had more non-strikeout putouts (50 to 28).
- By combining the above two factors with team catcher errors (Astros 7 [4 by other catchers], Marlins 10 [2 by other catchers]), we get the catcher non-strikeout error percentage. The Astros' was much better than the NL average (.049 vs. .081) while the Marlins' was worse (.102).
- This causes a difference of about 2 fielding win shares between Ausmus and Martinez.
- There is no evidence that this is caused by the other catchers.

Pete

Player Game Percentages, World Series (October 8, 2003)

Posted 5:03 p.m., October 9, 2003 (#4) - Pete
  Is the win probability table adjusted for different runs per game environments? A run in the 3rd inning of a 0-0 game should be worth far more in Dodger Stadium in the 60s than in Coors Field in the 90s.

Also, is it available online?