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New postseason odds (August 17, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 12:35 a.m.,
August 19, 2003
(#2) -
Noffs
BP's seem more reasonable to me...
ARod and Soriano - Was the Trade Fair? (February 16, 2004)
Posted 10:22 a.m.,
February 18, 2004
(#27) -
Noffs
Studes, since you seem to post here, let me see if I can get you for a minute. First, awesome evolution on the website.
Second, specific comment on the Net WS value, which is a fun exercise. It's interesting to see that anyone making more than $7M (Javy Lopez), is overpaid by this metric. However, since it's relative to the younger players, this is to be expected, since players with less than 6 years of service are having their salary artificially suppressed to something below their market value.
What should happen in a perfect efficient market is teams pay free agents for their marginal revenues, and then reap profits from their young players. In this model, no one would be overpaid, but all the free agents would have negative Net WS Values.
But this isn't the case and most free agents are actually overpaid. Some notes about your methodology though:
I know you wanted to keep it simple, but players making the minimum shouldn't have negative WS value, even with 0 WS. Replacement players are expected to have 0 WS, and should have 0 value. Much like Win Shares are contributions above replacement level, salaries should be salary above minimum, since the $300K is a sunk cost, and you are paying for some contribution (above zero-level). The way to correct for this is take the minimum out of everyone's salary. This reduces the total salary from 2171950223 to 1804750223 and the "WS value" from 298796.29 to 248280.40. Then the WS Value is WS*2482480.40 - salary + 300000.
This value also sums to zero, but I believe it properly adjusts for the minimum salary.
Lastly, I wouldn't say that this is quite the value of a Win Share, because most of the minimum-salaried players didn't play a full season and didn't earn the full $300K (September call-ups were more like $50K), leading to a too-high salary total. If you could find it, you could use total salary paid out by all the teams, but then that wouldn't accurately reflect the contributions of those players with partial seasons. Without busting out service-time data, you can't really correct for this, but considering how thorough you've been elsewhere on your website, I figured I'd point this out.
ARod and Soriano - Was the Trade Fair? (February 16, 2004)
Posted 10:26 a.m.,
February 18, 2004
(#29) -
Noffs
Oh, and Manny's contract was so heavily deferred that his AAV was less than $17.5M even before taking the PDV.
I am a fan of the idea that you can entirely express a player contract with two numbers - years and PDV. This discounts options, incentives, etc, but structure really shouldn't matter to a fluid franchise. Gary Sheffield wants to make it look like he's getting $13M but we only want to pay $12M? No problem.
So many players only care about that figure in the newspaper. How many average fans know that Pudge's contract is voidable, or that Manny's AAV is closer to $15M than it is to $20M? Not many. But they do known 4/40 and 8/160.
Blog Entry of the Week (February 20, 2004)
Posted 3:10 p.m.,
March 2, 2004
(#14) -
Noffs
Ryan,
The idea is that 3*OBP + SLG (times a constant) best approximates runs per game. For the AL in recent years, I actually have numbers to back that up (I came up with 2.8). But getting to your point:
3*OBP + SLG = 3(ISOobp + BA) + (ISOslg+BA) = 3*ISOobp + ISOslg + 4*BA
The ratio of the coefficients of OBP to SLG is the same as ISOobp to ISOslg
EconPapers: Steven Levitt (February 24, 2004)
Discussion ThreadPosted 3:19 p.m.,
March 2, 2004
(#16) -
Noffs
I wonder just how in depth line-setters go. I suspect that using day/night, home/road, left/right splits, one could do pretty well on baseball.
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