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UZR 2003 Previews (December 18, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 1:09 a.m.,
December 23, 2003
(#45) -
Neil(e-mail)
(homepage)
MGL said: "His 5 mil a year salary is a bargain. I would think that he is worth, or at least he was (he is a little old at 31), around 7 or 8 mil a year..."
Do you really think so? He's actually 34, seven years past his "prime," and although sabermetrically he can be included in the top tier of shortstops, you have to take a look at the market. Valentin would have been paid by most GMs 3-4 million dollars a year. I wouldn't call him a bargain in either respect (by both the "traditional" ideology and the new "sabermetric" ideology).
Traditional GMs look at Valentin and see a low-average, crappy defensive player who's getting old.
The new-age GMs see Valentin and see a good offensive and above-average defensive player, but someone who's 31 who has a better chance of a "collapse" than an "improve" (to use those damn PECOTA terms again - when are they going to be up for 2004?). Regardless, I doubt any of them would want to spend 5 million dollars on a high risk player like Valentin.
Plus, his declining OBP rate worries me. I'm afraid it'll be below .300 this year. Wait, no, I'm a Royals fan, I want that.
Also, his players most similar to him who played demanding positions suffered massive declines at age 34. Cheaper, equitable options at SS include Berroa, Rollins, both Gonzalezes (well, the Cubs' Gonzalez was signed way above past or current market value... I think that assertion is only exacerbated by the fact that the Cubs couldn't unload him because of his ridiculous salary), Cabrera, and Furcal. I would not call him a bargain or a sleeper, he's put up the similar but declining numbers for the past four years.
Oh, and if you have time, this is sort of relevant to the Graffanino platoon argument. Look at Valentin's splits: over the last three years he had a .491 OPS against lefties and .859 against righties. I'm curious if any other switch-hitters have had this sort of split. And I also wonder why he's still batting right-handed...
And I wanted to say thanks also for all the work you've done. I'm still trying to digest what everything means and why you did everything you did, but it's coming better. ;D
MGL's MLEs (January 22, 2004)
Discussion ThreadPosted 3:10 p.m.,
January 23, 2004
(#4) -
Neil(e-mail)
(homepage)
Those are beautiful.
2 questions:
What programs do you use to read CSV files? (are there any for MAC OS X?)
A just a minor detail - I noticed that Tydus Meadows was listed as a Kansas City Royal - I think he was selected in the Rule 5 draft.
Pappas - Marginal $ / Marginal Wins (March 9, 2004)
Posted 7:26 p.m.,
March 9, 2004
(#2) -
Neil
(homepage)
A little bit ago, I messed around with marginal$/marginal projected win for the 2004 season... (see homepage)
I am very surprised that there is not more investigation done in the area of converting payroll into wins: when winning percentage increases, it's harder to use the $2mill/win figure to calculate worth, as salaries seem to be exponetial? I could be way way way way wrong, but I sense some kind of statistical distribution that could categorize the distribution of salaries in relation to talent.