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Forecasting 2003
February 14, 2003 - Monty
I like the idea of a pure "control group" baseline. In addition to blindly predicting that each player will replicate his previous season, you could predict that each player will hit his career average OPS exactly.
Results of the Forecast Experiment, Part 2 (October 27, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 12:58 p.m.,
October 28, 2003
(#54) -
Monty
Heh. I got 52nd with my prediction of "Everyone will do exactly as well as last year".
Results of the Forecast Experiment, Part 2 (October 27, 2003)
Posted 7:07 p.m.,
October 28, 2003
(#60) -
Monty
my forecasting algorithm is available for all the world to see, and I'm sure my results would be somewhere near the top.
Okay. What's your algorithm and what results would it have predicted for these players? Then we can find out where you would have finished.