Individual Poster Page

See copyright notice at the bottom of this page.

List of All Posters

Cycles (June 27, 2003)

Posted 1:00 p.m., June 27, 2003 (#3) - Mike(e-mail) (homepage)
  True. Actually the all-time averages were just used in calculating the 4-AB, sequential cycles to illustrate the rarity. The historical expectation of 2.97 is actually around 2.49 adding up the expected values for each year. Of course, that's based on fractions of expected sequential cycles per year, so they are both basically based on funny money. The point is that a sequential, 4-AB cycle is extremely rare

The yearly expectations were all based on each league's odds for that year.

Thanks,
Mike

Futility Infielder - 2003 DIPS (January 27, 2004)

Posted 11:01 a.m., January 27, 2004 (#3) - Mike
  To the extent that Voros' work is accepted, how valid is the following formula? If a pitcher's success/failure is based laregly on luck, it seems to me the best pitchers are those who control the aspects of the game they can control (Ks, BBs, HRs, HBPs). Therefore, does the following formula make sense?
$K-($BB+$HR+$HBP)=dSCORE

It seems to me it's similar to OPS in that it conflates important pitching statistics into a number that is not technically an average, but is a quick and easy way to measure success. Notice that the top 10 in dSCORE from last year is very similar to the top 10 in dERA

dSCORE (100+ dIP)

Schilling - .207
Prior - .195
Martinez - .182
Schmidt - .166
Vazquez - .164
Mota - .163
Santana - .152
Johnson - .151
Mussina - .150
Beckett - .140

I've not run these numbers on prior years. Is it worth pursuing any further?