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OPS: Begone!
May 30, 2003 - Kurt
-----Quote----- Let me quote the relevant passage from moneyball about the 3 to 1 ratio: "He proceeded to tinker with his own version of Bill James' runs created formula. When he was finished, he had a model for predicting run production that was more accurate than any he knew of. In his model an extra point of OBA was worth 3 times an extra point of SLG."
I happen to believe - and no, I can't offer proof - that Lewis in some way or another didn't convey DePodesta's findings properly. The A's certainly haven't *behaved* like an organization that believes that OBP is three times more important than slugging average. ---End Quote---
From the verbiage of the Moneyball quote it seems quite obvious that they are, in some way, obfuscating the actual formula. If they are hiding it, we have no reason to believe that any of that section is usable. But looking at the exact words used... an EXTRA point of OBA, an EXTRA point of SLG... it sounds like they are using basline values.
3*(OBA-x)+(SLG-y)
Knowing what those baseline values are would seem to be the trick. .200 and .250? .300 and .100? .167 and .300? Where you set those greatly varies the effect of trippling the OBA.
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