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October 31, 2002 - Kenny
I hope you guys can indulge a stats novice for a minute.
It's been a few years since I took true score theory, but from what I remember, outcomes are a function of true score plus measurement error. So, in other words, in some book in heaven somewhere, it may be written that Barry Bonds is a .320 hitter. Everything else represents measurement error.
I think I understand regression to the mean. If the average baseball player hits .280, then we would expect Barry Bonds to follow a "true score" season with something less than .320. If I were a betting man, I would go with that.
So if Barry Bonds hits .320 for three years in a row, his failure to regress represents luck. But why does that mean that his true score is not .320? Why can't Barry just be a lucky player who happened to hit at his true score level for three straight years?
Thanks.
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