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Effect of SB attempt on batter (November 10, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 2:41 p.m.,
November 10, 2003
(#2) -
JHP
I remember STATS Scoreboard doing a piece on something similar, in I believe the 1994 Abstract. They studied the effect of pickoff throws on the HITTER and concluded that it's the batter who gets distracted and rattled by a dancing baserunner, NOT the pitcher.
There's definitely plenty to look into here. How many of the SB attempts were hit-and-runs? A botched hit-and-run would likely account for at least some of the outs.
As for the optimization, that's the point. The idea is to find out the numbers that actually explain what the chances for success are. The "old-school" methods come under fire precisely because they don't increase the chance of success.
I refuse to believe that the stolen base is useless, but if utilized properly, there's nothing wrong with taking an extra base, as long as you don't run yourself out of an inning/rally. The Bule Jays data is fascinating though. Who was stealing and who was at the plate when you crunched most of the numbers, i.e. did Delgado hit .171 after a SB too?
And Jarvis's piece was a little too numero-intensive for me to take a look at here and now...