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Advances in Sabermetrics (August 18, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 8:35 a.m.,
August 19, 2003
(#3) -
Hantheman
I can't answer the question as posed very well, but since Tangotiger mentioned it, I think the next great advances will be
1 Proper assessment of catcher's defense
2 Determining pitcher injury probabilities based on over-use (and exactly what that means in terms of pitch counts, 4-man vs 5-man rotation)
3 Improvement in projections of hitter and pitcher development based on college and low minors stats
I myself have spent a lot of time on #1, and hope to make more progress in the next year
Advances in Sabermetrics (August 18, 2003)
Posted 7:50 a.m.,
August 26, 2003
(#48) -
Hantheman
of course, most of the answers re: Walker's sample OBA of .380 are assuming classic textbook statistics, that we know NOTHING other than the resuts of the samll sample. In reality, most of the time there is much more a priori knowledge of a hitter, so that reaonsbale estimates looking forward will combine the a priori knowledge (which might say something like based on his colege record, his KO rate, his power, his speed, etc, his OBA projects to be .360 +or- .060.) with the sample OBA=.380, 50 PA, sample stdev = .070. As the sample PA go up, the a priori knowledge becomes less relevant. By 10000 PA, it is washed out.