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Crucial Situations
December 3, 2002 - Doug
Well, I can see the chart and the colors just fine, although the column headings would be better if repeated every half-inning, not just every inning.
But is there anything here that isn't intuitive? I mean, does anyone really need to consult the chart to know that they're in one of the red boxes - I kind of doubt it. The blue and grey boxes are a different story, but can there really be an argument for pinch hitting for guys (other than your pitcher) in the 3rd or 4th inning. I mean, you'd run through your bench, pretty fast.
Anyway, am just curious to learn if there was more coming - like what to do when you're in a particular colored box, so the practical value can be perceived. In contrast, your earlier, similar piece on when to walk Bonds seemed eminently practical, I think, because the action and its immediate, direct consequences were much more certain.
Reliever Usage Pattern, 1999-2002 (June 24, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 2:05 a.m.,
June 26, 2003
(#24) -
Doug
It occurs to me that the distribution of LI will very quite a bit by team. If you pitch on a juggernaut team with great pitching/great hitting, a great proportion of the PA will be low LI, because there'll be lots of game where you're up 5-0 in third or something and just coast in (or run up the score some more). Similarly, if you're on a weak hitting/weak pitching team, then most of your PA will be low LI, for the opposite reason. The rest of the teams should be in more close games so should have more PA with higher LI.
So..., if we're looking at how managers use relievers, why not look at each team's number of PAs in each LI range, and then calculate what percent of those PAs each reliever had. So instead of saying Percival had 23% of PAs in low LI situations, you might instead say that 10% (or whatever the number is) of the Angel's relievers' low LI PAs were pitched by Percival - which I think is telling you something a bit more interesting.
Bottom line is, if a team has many low LI PAs or many high LI PAs, they still need to get pitched, and the work needs to get spread around.
Best time to bring in your best reliever (October 23, 2003)
Posted 1:29 a.m.,
October 28, 2003
(#3) -
Doug
Interesting that 9th inning, score tied, is not a situation where most managers bring in their closer (or, at least, that's my gut feel from observation - don't know if it's really true). But, the L.I. says they should.
If you're the home team and it's tied entering the 9th, why not bring in your closer? It's not like there's going to be a save situation later to bring him in for.
If you're the visiting team, it's a little murkier. If you wait, there might be a save situation later - or there might not, and you end up losing the game. So, which line of thinking holds water? I have no idea what the stats are but my gut tells me in a majority of games tied going into the ninth, somebody scores in the ninth or the tenth. There just aren't that many extras going to the 11th and beyond. So I have to agree with the L.I. - bring in the closer, it's unlikely he's going to have to pitch much more than he would normally, anyway.
So, why don't managers think like this? I'm wondering whether in this age of super-specialization, closers (Mariano Rivera excepted) need the psychological security net of having a lead for them to pitch well? Hope that's not what the managers are thinking.