See copyright notice at the bottom of this page.
List of All Posters
Solving DIPS (August 20, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 4:53 p.m.,
August 22, 2003
(#13) -
Dirk
(homepage)
I wouldn't be so quick to leave the batter out of it. If you look at one of Baseball Prospectus's new reports (homepage), you'll see that the batters faced by pitchers are not at all evenly distributed. Limiting the question to pitchers with >20 starts and >100IP, the limits of the spread are
Zambrano_Victor TBA 21 133.7 635 .271 .345 .445 .790
Jennings_Jason COL 27 151.3 679 .256 .325 .399 .724
That's a difference of nearly 1 RA/9 IP using RC, so that's nothing to sneeze at. Someone else will have to do this for what we're actually interested in (Batter's BABIP) rather than the standard stats.
Of course, once you start adjusting pitchers for batters faced, you wonder if you should adjust the batters for pitchers faced...I don't know how you stop.
Solving DIPS (August 20, 2003)
Posted 6:57 p.m.,
August 25, 2003
(#17) -
Dirk
Tango -- I remember that equation. My guess, after looking at Woolner's stats, is that the variance of the hitting, as perceived by the pitcher, is not zero. But obviously that stat page doesn't prove anything, because it's about more than just balls in play.
I'm a neophyte at actually running these numbers myself rather than reading what the rest of you do. I downloaded ASS over the weekend and started playing with it, but it doesn't seem to have the horsepower to compute something like this. And I can't make sense of its raw data files easily.
If I could get a data file with rows something like this
pitcher batter pitchHand result
where result is limited to K/BB/HR/1B/2B/3B/out-in-play
I'd get the rest of the analysis going.