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OPS: Begone! Part 2
May 27, 2003 - Brian
Without running the numbers, I think intuitively BA has more value in the very short-term. OBA depends in part on the pitcher, and SLG depends on infrequent XBH. So if I have a key at-bat I'd rather have a high BA guy up there who better controls his own fate.
I've toyed with Albert Pujols vs Carlos Delgado as an example (2002):
Pujols .314, .394, .561, .955 OPS Delgado .277, .406, .549, .955 OPS
(Tango, this seems to fall under your high case environment.)
Of course using a higher OBA multiple gives Delgado a slight edge. This still doesn't sit well with me. For my money I prefer Pujols up there in a key situation.
How are Runs Really Created - Third Installment
September 18, 2002 - Brian
Tango,
Here's what I was getting at with regard breaking out the "getting on" and "moving over" values in the B equation. Looking again at what you did in part 2 did help me to figure this out though:
First, allow me to change my constant in the B equation from 8.2 to 4.5, which produces this (by dividing 8.2 by 1.8181 and multiplying the coefficients by that same amount):
B= 4.5 * [.18(1B)+.47(2B)+.75(3B)+.40(HR)+.02(BB)]
I did this so that the coefficient for the HR would equal the "moving over" value of the LWTs. From there it is not too difficult to break out the "getting on" and "moving over" values in the B equation. The only difference is that for purposes of the B equation, you want the scoring rate to increase only when the getting on value is above average, and to decrease when it is below average.
In this case, the average "getting on" value turns out to be .28, as the "getting on" value for the B equation is equal to the LWTs value less .28. The "moving over" values are exactly the same.
LWTS: 1B 2B 3B HRS BB geton .25 .41 .61 1.00 .24 mover .21 .34 .42 0.40 .06
BsR: geton (.03).13 .33 0.00(.04) mover 0.21 .34 .42 0.40 .06 total 0.18 .47 .75 0.40 .02
There is probably no need to apply these values seperately in the formula, but this may be helpfull in demonstrating that those coefficients are in fact derived directly from LWTS.
As for the 4.5 constant, I was a bit puzzled by what this meant, but I may have an answer.
For the purposes of calculating the scoring rate, in the denominator, succesfull scoring events + outs, outs in theory ought to only include outs with men on base.
If we divide term in the equation B/(B+C) by 4.5, we are able to back this constant out of B, and are left with B/(B+(C/4.5)). Thus total outs are being divided by 4.5. If you have 27 outs in a game, that would mean you are counting 6 of them, which it seems to me might be roughly the number of outs made per game with men on base in your data set.
Does this make sense?
How are Runs Really Created - Third Installment
September 18, 2002 - Brian
Tango,
Here's what I was getting at with regard breaking out the "getting on" and "moving over" values in the B equation. Looking again at what you did in part 2 did help me to figure this out though:
First, allow me to change my constant in the B equation from 8.2 to 4.5, which produces this (by dividing 8.2 by 1.8181 and multiplying the coefficients by that same amount):
B= 4.5 * [.18(1B)+.47(2B)+.75(3B)+.40(HR)+.02(BB)]
I did this so that the coefficient for the HR would equal the "moving over" value of the LWTs. From there it is not too difficult to break out the "getting on" and "moving over" values in the B equation. The only difference is that for purposes of the B equation, you want the scoring rate to increase only when the getting on value is above average, and to decrease when it is below average.
In this case, the average "getting on" value turns out to be .28, as the "getting on" value for the B equation is equal to the LWTs value less .28. The "moving over" values are exactly the same.
LWTS: 1B 2B 3B HRS BB geton .25 .41 .61 1.00 .24 mover .21 .34 .42 0.40 .06
BsR: geton (.03).13 .33 0.00(.04) mover 0.21 .34 .42 0.40 .06 total 0.18 .47 .75 0.40 .02
There is probably no need to apply these values seperately in the formula, but this may be helpfull in demonstrating that those coefficients are in fact derived directly from LWTS.
As for the 4.5 constant, I was a bit puzzled by what this meant, but I may have an answer.
For the purposes of calculating the scoring rate, in the denominator, succesfull scoring events + outs, outs in theory ought to only include outs with men on base.
If we divide term in the equation B/(B+C) by 4.5, we are able to back this constant out of B, and are left with B/(B+(C/4.5)). Thus total outs are being divided by 4.5. If you have 27 outs in a game, that would mean you are counting 6 of them, which it seems to me might be roughly the number of outs made per game with men on base in your data set.
Does this make sense?
How are Runs Really Created - Third Installment
September 18, 2002 - Brian
Tango:
Another thought; rather than outs with men on base, perhaps it is the men LEFT on base that would be near to 6.
Not every out of course, even with men on base, prevents the baserunner from scoring. LOB seems like the number you would want.
It also fortunately, is something that you might have an actual value available for, if that is the case.
p.s. sorry for the double posting.
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