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OPS: Begone!
May 20, 2003 - Art
Looking at Tango's 6 teams (the first table) even though they have the same expected number of runs scored the expected number of wins would only be the same if they had the same distribution as well... normally this would be the case (or close to it) but I wonder if high slg/low obp teams have a larger variance than the low slg/high obp teams... and that variance will affect the number of wins for that team. For a team like Oakland (good hitting & pitching) the lower variance would be beneficial (i.e. they'd prefer to score 5 runs every game than to score 2 runs half the time & 8 runs half the time). For a team like detroit (lousy hitting & pitching) they'd probably like the variance (getting shut out half the time & 6 runs half the time versus scoring 3 every game). Don't know if there's anything to this...
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