## Bill James just doesn't get it.## I'm talking about Linear Weights AND Win Shares.by Tangotiger
Therefore, a player that is .490 does have less value than a .500 player. But a .500 player makes 2 million$/ year. So, a .490 player should be expected to make at least 1.5 million$. Even a team like the Expos that average .400 pay out 30 million $ in salaries. There's alot of value on that team. As well, the question is not whether you'd rather have a .490 player with 100 at bats, or a .450 player with 600 at bats. That is a question about replacement level. From that perspective, you can create LWTSaboveRepl, and show the player's plus/minus against some other baseline, like .350. Linear Weights answers a very specific question, and therefore, should be applied only within the context of that question. Ask 2 different questions, and you get 2 different answers. And you need 2 different methodologies.
This is how a .250 player gets ZERO win shares. It assumes that a .500 team, without this player will play at .475 or so. That is, an 81-win team will win 77 or so games. And if they had a .500 player instead, they would have won 81 games. So, that's 4 wins short. Doesn't make sense to penalize the other 24 players because we "know" that they are .500 players, always were and always will be. So, you have no choice but to dock the 4 wins from the one variable that changed. So, the average player would have created 80 runs, while this guy created 40 runs. That's a 40 run difference from the .500 level, and -4 wins created from the .500 level. Since the .500 player creates say about 4 wins, then this .250 player is worth 0 wins created. It's an accident, AN ACCIDENT, that the "marginal level" is half the league average.
Wins over .500 = (Wins - Losses) / 2 is a true statement.Since we know what wins over .500 equals (see Linear Weights), and we know what Wins equals (see Win Shares), then we can derive Loss Shares. Bill James is a great baseball mind, and is the inspiration for countless baseball analysts, including me. But sometimes, Bill James just doesn't get it. |