Astute Phelps learning his way with Jays (January 29, 2004)
Thanks to Danny.
Josh Phelps talks about game theory and luck.
Question: As a math fan, do you just chalk two bad weeks up to randomness?
Phelps: It's definitely random. I know for a fact that I can be feeling great and hit 10 balls hard on the nose and hit those 10 balls right to people. 0-for-10. How else do you explain that? And you can be feeling terrible -- "I hope I just get a bleeder today," something like that -- and just out of luck, fate, randomness, whatever you call it, you get three hits. You can't put too much stock in things that you have no control over.
--posted by TangoTiger at 05:12 PM EDT
Posted 6:23 p.m.,
January 29, 2004
(#1) -
David Smyth
Yes, Phelps acknowledges randomness when it suits him--when he's in a slump--but he also talked about being zoned in as a real thing, as opposed to just randomness in the opposite direction. Not saying he is wrong, because I also believe that being "on" is real (though fleeting).
Posted 12:55 p.m.,
January 30, 2004
(#2) -
emyhre
Sounds like he'd be a believer in DIPS... which makes me wonder, is a DIPS style approach be relevant to batters as well as pitchers? Has it been clearly established that the hitter's skill results in a higher number of (non-HR) balls in play dropping for hits, or is it more a byproduct of the defenses he's facing?
Either way, you'd think that if Josh had such a mind for numbers, he'd start taking a look at his strikeout rates.
Posted 1:48 p.m.,
January 30, 2004
(#3) -
tangotiger
A pitcher has a skill with hits per bip. A batter has a skill with hits per bip.
It's far easier to detect that with batters. And, the spread in the talent is wider for batters.