Aging Patterns and Selective Sampling (January 26, 2004)
Dipping into my vault for an oldie, but a goodie.
--posted by TangoTiger at 02:42 PM EDT
Posted 5:07 p.m.,
January 26, 2004
(#1) -
tangotiger
There's a tremendous amount of information you can get from that last chart at the end. See the "count" number? You can generate "attrition rates" based on that. That is, guys who are full-timers for 2 years in a row at the age 26-28 class have a low attrition rate, while part-timers have a larger attrition rate.
I'm sure if you add more parameters, like performance level, etc, you can create a function for attrition rates rather easily. That is, given age, probable true talent level (hitting+fielding), and number of PAs, you can come up with a nifty function to figure out the expected distribution of PAs for the next 3 years for a player.