Pythag - Ben VL (December 12, 2003)
I thought you (more math-oriented) guys might like this old thread on the "Pythagoreum Theorem", as well as the resulting discussion thread here:
http://www.baseballprimer.com/clutch/archives/00007072.shtml
If you make any comments, best to place them at here Pimate Studies (or it will be lost in the sea of Clutch Hits).
--posted by TangoTiger at 12:40 PM EDT
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Posted 2:34 p.m.,
December 15, 2003
(#2) -
FJM
In 1991, by almost any measure, the Yankees were a better team overall than my D'backs. The Cardinals and the Braves were too. But they won the WS because of a 2-headed monster, Johnson and Schilling. And it shouldn't have been a great surprise. During the regular season they were 51-18 (.739) with either one starting; 41-52 (.441) otherwise. Their overall record was mediocre (92-70, .568) because the Big 2 started only 42.6% of the time. But in the postseason they started 11 out of 17 games (64.7%), and the Snakes were 9-2 in those games. (They were 2-4 in the other games.) So unless you adjust for pitching matchups regular season records (whether "actual" or "expected") are very unreliable predictors of postseason success.
Posted 3:32 p.m.,
December 15, 2003
(#3) -
FJM
That was 2001, of course.
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Posted 3:06 p.m.,
December 16, 2003
(#5) -
FJM
You continue to ignore my point. Yes, regular season records DO have predictive value, IF AND ONLY IF you adjust for pitching matchups. The D'backs with Johnson or Schilling on the mound were a completely different team than they were with Batista or Anderson.
Posted 5:04 p.m.,
December 17, 2003
(#6) -
AED
FJM, your "IF AND ONLY IF" assertion is far too strong. Regular season stats have very good predictive value regardless of whether or not pitching matchups are considered. Sure, one can improve the predictions by accounting for pitching. One can improve them further by considering team platoon splits, health of position players, home field advantage, or any number of other considerations. Given that we don't have lineup and pitcher data for most of baseball's history, it would be sad to forgo analysis altogether because the data aren't up to one's standards.