Graph - RPW Converter (October 13, 2003)
I used the PythagoPat (with the .28 value) to figure out the expected win% for RS+RA from 2 to 16, and from RS-RA from 0 to 5. Then, I simply figured the RPW (runs-per-win) converter as (RS-RA)/(win% - .500)
What are you going to see?
You are going to see the "black line" where the run differential is 0, and the RPW converter starting at "2" when RS+RA = 1. And you will see it go up, in an almost straight line, to almost "15" when RS+RA = 16.
You will see a few more lines at other RS-RA lines that follow the same pattern. (This corresponds to the legend on the right.)
As I mentioned in other threads, the PythagoPat corresponds the closest to the Tango Distribution, and that distribution is the best one to model actual win matchups.
--posted by TangoTiger at 09:21 PM EDT
Posted 8:29 p.m.,
October 14, 2003
(#1) -
David Smyth
If you try to visualize that graph extending from 16 rpg to infinity, it looks like all of those lines should converge, and the run differential will make no difference. A differential of 0, or 1 million, will result in the same answer. Therefore, one can make a case that the "avg" run differentials at various realistic rpg levels are not part of "ability" and should be "ignored" (unless you are simply after value).
