Pitch Type and Count May Increase Risk of Elbow and Shoulder Pain in Youth Baseball Pitchers (September 27, 2003)
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--posted by TangoTiger at 11:55 PM EDT
Posted 11:58 p.m.,
September 27, 2003
(#1) -
tangotiger
(homepage)
Check out this link too.
Posted 1:30 p.m.,
September 28, 2003
(#2) -
Michael Humphreys
Tango,
This article, which to some degree helps quantify conventional wisdom regarding the damage caused by throwing breaking pitches, at least for very young pitchers, reminded me of any idea I had regarding the pitcher with the greatest longevity in baseball history: Satchel Paige.
There's a great essay about him in Bill James' New Historical Abstract (see page 193). Satchel conspicously "lacked" a good breaking pitch. But maybe Satchel figured out that by *avoiding* the use of breaking pitches, he could extend his career, which was by far the longest in the history of organized baseball. As usual, Bill says it best:
"So what you have, in Satchel Paige, is a great fastball, great control, a tremendous change, a great understanding of how to pitch, intelligence, determination, absolute composure--and a forty year career."
I'll quote from the posted article immediately below. Note that throwing change-ups actually *reduces* the risk of injury!
"Overall, almost 15% of all pitching appearances resulted in elbow or shoulder pain. The slider was found to have a significant relationship to elbow pain (86% increased risk), and use of the curveball accounted for a 52% increased risk of shoulder pain for the population studied. Use of the change-up pitch was associated with a 12% reduction in the risk of elbow pain and a 29% reduction in the risk of shoulder pain."
It's still a fair question whether a major league pitcher today could get away with avoiding throwing breaking pitches. As Bill has written, most strikeouts are on breaking pitches, and you almost always need to be above-average in strikeouts to have a major league career of any length.
Do we know of any starting pitchers who conspicuously limit the number of breaking pitches they throw? Does anybody today try to rely on the fastball, change and location?
Posted 1:59 p.m.,
September 28, 2003
(#3) -
David Smyth
The pitchers with the highest % of fastball thrown in 2002 were:
v padilla, 77.1
d lowe, 76.4
g maddux, 76.3
a ashby, 72.7
k rueter, 70.7
j washburn, 70.6
d baez, 70.5
k millwood, 70.4,
a leiter, 70.2
ru ortiz, 69.1
changeups?
glavine, 33.6
moyer, 32.4
d moss, 30.2
m redman, 24.3
k rogers, 23.6
neagle, 19.4
maddux, 19.4
pedro, 18.6
Maddux is on both lists.
Posted 2:29 p.m.,
September 28, 2003
(#4) -
sjohnny
More articles about young boys please.
Posted 8:32 p.m.,
September 28, 2003
(#5) -
Michael Humphreys
David,
Thanks for the data. So Maddux might be throwing 76.3 + 19.4 = 95.7% non-breaking pitches? The relatively small number of breaking pitches would be consistent with his modest strikeout rates.
I've gotten the general impression that Maddux has developed a reputation for practically "asking" to get pulled from games after only six innings or so. Perhaps his pitch selection and conservatism about going deep into games might be part of a strategy to increase the chance that he'll be able to pitch for many more years.
Interesting that there isn't more overlap between the lists. I suppose that pitchers tend to rely more on change-ups when they *don't* have big fastballs, in order to make the fastballs look faster. What might be unusual about Paige is that he had a blazing fastball *and* a great change.
Posted 11:02 a.m.,
September 29, 2003
(#6) -
tangotiger
(homepage)
If you click the above link, I should Maddux's estimated pitch counts. You can check mlb.com site for his actual pitch count. In any case, it's a fallacy that Maddux has low pitch counts, or that he routinely pulls himself from games early, etc, etc. Maybe these last 2 years, but not years earlier.
And I don't think his K totals are modest. I'm pretty sure they are above average.
Posted 11:21 a.m.,
September 29, 2003
(#7) -
Michael Humphreys
Tango,
Yes, Maddux's reputation for not staying in games past the first six innings or so was (a) only recently acquired and (b) just that, a reputation, or something I thought I had been hearing of, not a proven fact. Judging from your estimates, it looks as though his per-game pitch count dropped slightly only last year.
When I said his strikeout rate was "modest", I didn't mean to imply that it was actually below average, just that it wasn't exceptional. As Bill James keeps pointing out, once your strikeout rate is actually below average, you're on your way out.
Thanks for the post.
Posted 12:10 p.m.,
September 29, 2003
(#8) -
Owen
Are the Braves and Mazzone consciously de-emphasizing the breaking pitch in their system? Or do you think it's just a result of the type of pitcher they've been blessed with?
Looking at those names up there with Maddux, Millwood, Ortiz (w/ SF), Glavine, and his clone Moss, it makes you think there's a pattern there.