Pyschological Impact of a Devastating Outcome (September 27, 2003)
Several months ago, we looked at the impact of losing a game that was just about locked up. While I believe in this b.s., I don't think we can ever prove it exists with the numbers. But, I might be wrong about that.
What I'm asking for is scenarios where you think a pyshcological impact would manifest itself in performance. At fanhome, someone mentioned making an error, and then, in that player's next turn at bat, how does he perform. (We Bill James fans remember the George Bell arbitration case where in games he had errors, he performed Ruthian.) So, just list for me some other scenarios where you think a player's performance might be overly affected by psychological "trauma". Clutch hitting/pitching would be another. How a pitcher responds to too many errors behind him. Just go crazy. I'll take a look at your scenarios in a few months.
Thanks for your help.
--posted by TangoTiger at 02:40 PM EDT
Posted 10:56 a.m.,
September 28, 2003
(#1) -
Casey Jones
Ther have been times that David Wells reacts very badly in terms of demeanor after a player makes a bad error behind him. I think the after-effects of miscues behind Wells might be worth looking into. Of course, with the Yanks not all of the misplays were errors, some were just balls that should have been handled, but errors is probably a good proxy.
Posted 3:46 p.m.,
September 29, 2003
(#2) -
Scott
I wonder how they perform when faced with the realization that if continue at their current pace they'll make the All-Star game - or hit an incentive in their contract or do so poorly that they'll be sent back down? Very hard to quantify I'm sure - but from experience I think this effect was real.
Posted 10:59 a.m.,
September 30, 2003
(#3) -
zoobird
I actually think that there's much less chance of an effect from devastating outcomes in baseball than in other sports. I think the main effect of being very discouraged would be a lack of motivation/peak effort, and baseball seems to rely less on maintaining peak effort and more on skill than other sports.
Posted 10:38 p.m.,
September 30, 2003
(#4) -
the Derek Lowe Face
Whenever anything goes wrong when Derek's on the mound.
Posted 11:59 p.m.,
September 30, 2003
(#5) -
Andrew Edwards
Possible scenarios (just thinking through what would make me frustrated):
- Walks in a run
- Makes an error himself
- Has an error made behind him
- Walks a batter after an 0-2 count
- Is warned by an ump for brushback, etc.
- Balks
- Gives up a tying run
- Throws a wild pitch
- Has a passed ball
Of course, you've already thought of this, but just to remind you - these scenarios have biases themselves. For instance, a balk requires a runner on, so a poor pitcher will have more chances to balk than a good pitcher. Ideally, comparisons would be made within a pitcher: i.e. How does David Wells normslly do with a runner on 2nd versus how does he do wit ha runner he's balked to 2nd, versus a runner who's gone to 2nd on a passed ball, etc.
Sample size issues abound, of course, but if we do that within pitcher comparison across a few hundred or a few thousand pitchers, we should be able to get something useful.
Posted 12:34 p.m.,
October 1, 2003
(#6) -
tangotiger
Great stuff! Thanks for the excellent ideas. I agree with your last statement as to how to proceed. This is exactly the way I'd do it.
Posted 5:28 p.m.,
October 1, 2003
(#7) -
FJM
Building on Andrew's suggestions.
Walking or hitting the opposing pitcher (or #9 hitter in the AL).
Walking or hitting the 1st batter, especially if he is a weak hitter.
Allowing a stolen base, esp. to a runner who almost never steals.
Allowing a HR to a guy with no power.
Allowing a hit on an 0-2, 1-2 or 2-2 count, esp. with RISP.
Allowing a hit on a 2-0,3-0 or 3-1 count with 1st base open and RISP.
Losing a no-hitter (6th inning or later).
Wild pitch/passed ball on the 3rd strike.
Blooper falls in.
A visit by the pitching coach.
Returning to the mound after a very long half-inning.
Posted 7:19 p.m.,
October 1, 2003
(#8) -
Tangotiger
How about from the hitter's perspective? Or do we think that because 30 minutes elapse between PAs that he has time to recover? Just the errors?
How about leaving runners stranded?
Or leaving bases loaded twice as a hitter?
CS in a close game?
3 consecutive Ks?
Posted 8:03 p.m.,
October 1, 2003
(#9) -
FJM
I'm sure hitters get just as frustrated as pitchers. But their frustration is usually tied to a specific pitcher. As soon as the starter leaves the game, it's like starting fresh. So you'd only be able to use a fraction of the PA's in a typical game.
You could try looking at hitters who have been "owned" by a particular pitcher in the past. But is that caused by frustration or by a "real" problem, like the inability to pick up the ball because of that pitcher's motion?
Posted 1:16 a.m.,
October 8, 2003
(#10) -
Charles Saeger(e-mail)
One thing at which I've wanted to look was the Tony LaRussa complaint -- that blowing a 3-run save in the 9th will just kill a MLB team. It has always struck me as CYA complaining from a manager who does not want to change his strategy, and it would be easy to check, noting the following:
* Record of this team in the previous three games.
* Record of this team in the next three games.
* Did the team win or lose the blown save game? There may have been a few wins in there.
You might want to control for home/road and opponent's records, but I'm not sure those will matter much.
Anyhow, were TLR to be right, there would be a significant drop between the team's record in the previous three games and the following three games, not explainable by a change of home/road venue or quality of foes.
Posted 6:17 p.m.,
October 13, 2003
(#11) -
tangotiger
Charles, your question was answered in a Clutch thread several months ago. I'll see if I can find it.
Another thought: a pitcher who hits a batter is more likely than his average to get hit himself his next time up.