Clemens' turnaround? (September 15, 2003)
Gordon Edes says: In 100 years of baseball, no pitcher had ever been so mediocre over such a protracted period in his early 30s and gone on to turn it around like Roger.
For the record, Clemens in those 4 years was 40-39, with 717 K, 304 BB, or an average of 8.7 K and 3.7 BB per 9 innings. And 7.9 H / 9IP. He was 31 to 34 years old.
Who is Roger Clemens' closest comp? David Cone, with 8.3 and 3.5 K and BB numbers, and 7.1 H at the same age. Cone went 53-21. That was from 1994-1997. He was fine in 98 and 99.
Next is Hideo Nomo with 8.7 K, 4.2, and 8.3 H. He was 49-36. This was his last 4 years (99-02). How's he doing this year?
Other notable comps are Al Leiter in 1996-99, Finley in 1993-96.
I don't know if Clemens 93-96 was a turnaround so much as just a blip on the radar.
--posted by TangoTiger at 05:09 PM EDT
Posted 5:11 p.m.,
September 15, 2003
(#1) -
tangotiger
And of course, win-loss records are very heavy team-dependent. Don't we all know this already?
Posted 6:01 p.m.,
September 15, 2003
(#2) -
bob mong
Tango, when you say, "Who is Roger Clemens' closest comp?" are you just eyeballing it, or are you using a statistical comparison?
Posted 10:57 p.m.,
September 15, 2003
(#3) -
Tangotiger
I just used one of my quick things. I looked for all pitchers with a K/9IP and B/9IP that were within .7 of Clemens, and between 600 and 900 IP over 4 years, and at the age of 31-34.
Certainly not an exhaustive study, nor the best ones. But, I'm simply providing some data that Mr Edes did not.
First, Edes was wrong in calling Clemens' 4 years "mediocre", since the other pitchers I've shown had quite good 4 years. Secondly, it wasn't such a great turnaround. Clemens was already starting from sky high, and he became very good, and then followed that up with sensational to great.
The other comps did not start so high, but they also continued to have a few more good years after those similar "mediocre" years.
And to say "100 years" as if Edes actually looked into it? All these comps were within the last 10 years.