Timeline Adjustments (August 1, 2003)
Someone asked me about comparing Ruth and Bonds. Here was my reply:
There are 2 things to consider
1 - Do you want to magically transport Babe Ruth to today?
2 - Do you want Babe Ruth to be born in the same year as Bonds, so that he has the same environment to grow and take advantage of?
In terms of #1, you have to establish the quality of his opponents then and now. You have to establish the change in population then and now. You have to establish the type of athletes who played baseball then and now. You have to establish the effect of blacks in the game today.
Unfortunately, because of the huge time span (70 or 80 years), any minute difference will compound itself to astronomical heights. If you say that the talent level has increased by one a percent a year (something that is really imperceptible), compounded, that makes the change in talent level DOUBLED over 70 years. And if the change in talent level is one-fourth of one percent each year? Talent level will have increased by 20% over 70 years.
How confident are we that we can determine the difference between 1% and 0.25% change year-to-year? Realistically, you would say something like "I'm 95% sure that the talent level increased by 0.25%, +/- 0.50%, year-to-year". With such a huge margin for error, and compounded over 70 years, well.... you can make the numbers back up any argument.
As for #2, it's really quite impossible to pick out Ruth and say that if he was born in the 1960s, that he would have taken better care of his body, that he would have done this or that.
In the end, it's quite difficult to really come to any conclusion.
--posted by TangoTiger at 10:46 AM EDT