Clutch Hitting Exists (August 1, 2003)
1. Clutch hitting exists, because everything exists.
2. Just because we can't find it, doesn't mean it's not there.
3. However, because it is so extremely difficult to find, at a reasonable confidence level and a reasonable margin of error, that it becomes almost pointless to try to use that.
(more comments below...) That is, even if we all concede that clutch hitting exists, and even if you try to find it, you will not be able to ascertain with a player's performance numbers with any confidence that "yes, he's clutch".
At the point that you might be able to say that Eddie Murray or Robin Ventura are clutch hitters, the sample size for you to say that is so large, that their careers are practically over. Can you make use of that forward-looking?
Patrick Roy in hockey is generally regarded as the biggest money goalie (and player) of all-time. But, we've only been able to say that after a string of great performances that were so out-of-this world that it provided reasonable confidence that this is true, based on the numbers. By the time I said that, he turned in the worst playoff performance game of his career. Truly horrible.
So, even if you can say with any degree of confidence, using the numbers, that a player WAS clutch, is there a reason to believe that his clutchness will persist? Is clutch ability such a tightrope walk that once you fall, you can't get it back? Did Roy go from being a super clutch player, to just a super player?
Now, if you want to look in other areas, like psychology, to come up with your evidence, that's another ballgame. I'm not a psychologist, and I can't say anything more about it. But if a psychologist says that based on his research that he can pick out that Patrick Roy or Eddie Murray were clutch players because of the way their body and brain responds to certain stimulus, then bingo! You've found it.
If you want to prove clutch ability, you won't do it by looking at a player's performance numbers. The sample size isn't there. You need to look elsewhere, like directly, as much as possible, in the player's head. AND, you've got to establish persistence as well.
--posted by TangoTiger at 10:38 AM EDT