Chances of making the playoffs (July 23, 2003)
Fanhome's dackle steps in:
Yanks, Sox, KC, Sea, Atl, SF each at 94%+ chance of making the playoffs.
Phi has the big lead on the Wild Card over Ari. Hou has the lead over Stl in the Central.
--posted by TangoTiger at 09:56 AM EDT
Posted 2:01 p.m.,
July 23, 2003
(#1) -
STL
If only I could believe that Giants have the division locked up that solidly. Unfortunately, his method doesn't account for trades and other roster changes. At least not from his brief description.
Posted 4:30 p.m.,
July 23, 2003
(#2) -
ChicagoTRS
Chicago White Sox with a .3% chance to win the AL Central...I would put $100 on that if I could get the odds associated with that number...333 to 1
Posted 1:13 a.m.,
July 24, 2003
(#3) -
Will B
Stick a fork in the D-Backs, they're done. The Gianst will win the West after their thumping of the D-Backs.
Posted 2:28 a.m.,
July 24, 2003
(#4) -
Scott B
Nifty, altho using current winning percentage as "talent level" might not be the best idea.
Posted 3:02 p.m.,
July 24, 2003
(#5) -
Dave E
(homepage)
It strikes me that the percentages for all of the favorites are too high. Houston at 68%? Two weeks ago they were tied for first. A 3 game lead over two other teams with over a third of the season left strikes me as being closer to 50%, especially seeing that we haven't even reached the trading deadline yet. But I'm no math wizard.
Posted 3:25 p.m.,
July 24, 2003
(#6) -
tangotiger
If all teams were .500, then your guess is pretty good. Dackle is showing a 55% chance of winning the division in that case, looking only at the lead.
If you use dackle's expectation of the true talent of that team and its opponents (which I don't), then you get a much higher value.