SABR 201 - Should we non-sac bunt more? (July 10, 2003)
Assuming that we are only talking about a bunt single, with bases empty, here is the run value for the single, and the out, with 0, 1, 2 outs:
+.37, -.23
+.24, -.16
+.11, -.08
The break-even point for laying one down is 38, 40, 42%, respectively.
So, if you are a lg average batter, and you think you can lay it down at a better than 40% clip safely, then you should go for it in that case.
How well does a batter bunt in such cases? From 1999-2002, with 2674 AB, the batter was safe 47% of the time.
However, this does not include those times he tried to bunt during the PA, then switched at the end (maybe because of 2 strikes). If you give him another 1000 "wasted" PA, where his "equivalent singles average" was .250 (i.e., maybe a .230 OBA guy, with a .300 SLG or something), that would bring his effective singles-batting average to around .400.
If the break-even is at least .400, then we'd expect the overall average to be much higher, maybe .450.
Should we non-sac bunt more? We need to know about those wasted PAs.
--posted by TangoTiger at 03:37 PM EDT
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