Ruane - Cost of outs, and speed (July 9, 2003)
This is one of my favorite studies.
Or less than two runs over the course of a season. Sure, this doesn't
seem like a big difference--hitter A's outs cost about 2 runs a season
less than hitter B's, but this is true despite the fact that hitter A
will ground into around 23 double-plays compared to less than 10 for
hitter B. So where hitter A should be getting credit for making
slightly less costly outs, he will in fact be charged for all those
extra double-plays.
--posted by TangoTiger at 02:31 PM EDT
Posted 5:07 p.m.,
July 9, 2003
(#1) -
Andrew Edwards
Awesome.
Posted 7:37 p.m.,
July 9, 2003
(#2) -
David Smyth
That study, and that specific part, is the reason I never wanted to include GDP in a run estimation formula, and the reason I thought it might be better to handle GDP differently in Slwts.
Posted 11:27 a.m.,
July 10, 2003
(#3) -
Rally Monkey
I seem to recall a study showing the chances of turning a ground ball into a DP depended about as much on the lead runner as the batter, If this is the case the extra out should be partially charged to both.
Posted 11:41 a.m.,
July 10, 2003
(#4) -
tangotiger
I showed a few months ago the GIDP rate of Rickey, Coleman, and Raines, it was much less than the league average. Something like if the league average was around .115, these guys were at the .060 to .080 level. Can't remember though.
Posted 1:23 p.m.,
July 10, 2003
(#5) -
tangotiger
(homepage)
The above link has the data I mentioned.
Posted 3:11 p.m.,
July 13, 2003
(#6) -
Silver King
The idea that the little gains from the productive outs are more than cancelling out the gdps is pretty hard to get one's mind around.
For example, I'm in a Diamond Mind league and two of my players (low k, good baserunners) are top five (in a large league) in gdp. I'm the OBA leader by a nice margin, so you're gonna have some gdps, but they're really painful to watch. It's hard to feel like that's just a high-visibility side effect of a net positive from their ground ball outs. Alas, DM doesn't have a 'productive outs' or ground-vs-fly stat.
I have a strong urge for a high-k, fly-oriented slugger right behind each singles'n'walks guy. (This is a stars league, so I have some impressive examples of both to work with.)