Bonderman and Age 20 (June 26, 2003)
Bob Mong takes a look at "rushing" pitchers.
--posted by TangoTiger at 07:55 PM EDT
Posted 12:08 p.m.,
June 27, 2003
(#1) -
bob mong(e-mail)
(homepage)
Thanks for the link, Tango.
Anyone have any ideas about good ways to improve my so-called study and/or increase the sample size?
Also, can anyone fill in details about the six pitchers' careers, especially with regards to injury history?
Posted 12:19 p.m.,
June 27, 2003
(#2) -
MAH
Bob,
Thanks for the article. I think it would be very interesting to know what has happened to 20-year-old pitchers who pitched *more* than 225 innings. Dwight Gooden never had a really dominant (at least as measured by park-adjusted ERA) full-time season after he pitched 220, 275 and 250 innings at ages 19, 20 and 21. It's just a hunch, but there may in fact be a "threshold" number of innings or estimated pitches for *young* pitchers beyond which the chances of career-impairing damage goes way up.
Posted 12:36 p.m.,
June 27, 2003
(#3) -
tangotiger
I would also propose that you ues a "pitch-count estimator" instead of innings. Or at the very least, an estimate of BFP.
Posted 1:21 p.m.,
June 27, 2003
(#4) -
Rally Monkey
As far as increasing the sample size, I would look at pitchers in the age range of 18-21 instead of just 20 year olds.
Posted 9:10 p.m.,
July 1, 2003
(#5) -
OCF
(homepage)
Another name to consider: Vida Blue. Blue appeared briefly in the majors at age 19 and again at age 20. In 1971 at age 21, he was a full 4-man-rotation starter completing most of his games, for 312 IP, and he was great (ERA+ 183). After a down (hurt?) year in 1972, he settled in to a 17-year career, carrying in his prime the load of a 70's-style workhorse. But his 1971 was always his best year.
Posted 2:59 p.m.,
July 3, 2003
(#6) -
Dave
Expand the age range to include 18 year olds, and you get to David Clyde, the poster child for the theory of young pitchers being rushed. Clyde went straight from high school to the bigs. At least Bonderman got to pitch in the minors a while.