Validating the Favorite Toy (June 9, 2003)
Shane Holmes does the grunt work to validate The Favorite Toy. Excellent job. You can all see the full thread .
--posted by TangoTiger at 09:49 AM EDT
Posted 1:28 p.m.,
June 9, 2003
(#1) -
Rally Monkey
"Summing every 250+ HR player's chance equals 24.42. In actuality, before 2003, 17 men had reached both 250 and 500."
Considering Griffey, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Thome, and Ramirez are still active, the favorite toy seems to be almost right on.
Posted 1:37 p.m.,
June 9, 2003
(#2) -
Randal
Are you the biggest idiot ever?
Posted 2:01 p.m.,
June 9, 2003
(#3) -
Warren
I remember looking at the Favorite Toy once, and I found that the formula really only works for the type of players that ever reach important milestones - that is, good/great players. The predicted number of remaining seasons formula, if I remember correctly, is quite inaccurate for most players - if way overestimates the number of remaining years. Only for players that we already know are good does that estimate seem to work okay. That doesn't invalidate the method by any means, but it's something that people should be aware of - just because it works with great players does not mean it will work for other groups of players.
Posted 3:48 p.m.,
June 9, 2003
(#4) -
Rally Monkey
It won't work for ordinary players because they will slip below replacement level before they get old (unless Dusty Baker likes them). A great player normally will at least be good enough to play when he's old.
I see it as more of a remaining plate appearance estimator, if it says you have 3.6 years left and are currently getting 500 PA per year, then that's 1800 plate appearances. They may more likely come over 5-6 years than 3-4, as older players tend not to be on the field as much.