Win Expectancy Matrix, 1950-2010
Actual Wins, following each inning/score
© Tangotiger
The following table presents the average number of wins for the home team, from that inning/score.
All data is from 1950-2010, courtesy of Retrosheet, our sabremetric sliced bread.
| 1993-2010 |
| Inning | Top/Bottom | -5 | -4 | -3 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 1 | Top | | | | | | 0.540 | | | | | |
| 1 | Bottom | 0.181 | 0.186 | 0.310 | 0.386 | 0.489 | 0.594 | | | | | |
| 2 | Top | 0.148 | 0.151 | 0.226 | 0.328 | 0.420 | 0.536 | 0.641 | 0.722 | 0.812 | 0.898 | 0.896 |
| 2 | Bottom | 0.180 | 0.182 | 0.271 | 0.362 | 0.457 | 0.584 | 0.697 | 0.763 | 0.849 | 0.926 | 0.911 |
| 3 | Top | 0.127 | 0.126 | 0.233 | 0.304 | 0.400 | 0.538 | 0.652 | 0.739 | 0.821 | 0.899 | 0.906 |
| 3 | Bottom | 0.126 | 0.177 | 0.267 | 0.350 | 0.471 | 0.586 | 0.704 | 0.793 | 0.858 | 0.920 | 0.935 |
| 4 | Top | 0.092 | 0.134 | 0.213 | 0.283 | 0.404 | 0.526 | 0.652 | 0.757 | 0.832 | 0.893 | 0.932 |
| 4 | Bottom | 0.101 | 0.163 | 0.243 | 0.320 | 0.462 | 0.595 | 0.716 | 0.809 | 0.881 | 0.929 | 0.964 |
| 5 | Top | 0.063 | 0.101 | 0.174 | 0.262 | 0.383 | 0.524 | 0.675 | 0.776 | 0.861 | 0.910 | 0.945 |
| 5 | Bottom | 0.087 | 0.127 | 0.221 | 0.301 | 0.436 | 0.597 | 0.743 | 0.832 | 0.902 | 0.942 | 0.969 |
| 6 | Top | 0.059 | 0.080 | 0.152 | 0.230 | 0.359 | 0.519 | 0.690 | 0.796 | 0.882 | 0.932 | 0.964 |
| 6 | Bottom | 0.059 | 0.105 | 0.168 | 0.281 | 0.427 | 0.606 | 0.770 | 0.868 | 0.931 | 0.965 | 0.974 |
| 7 | Top | 0.030 | 0.053 | 0.105 | 0.194 | 0.315 | 0.528 | 0.720 | 0.839 | 0.907 | 0.955 | 0.971 |
| 7 | Bottom | 0.041 | 0.062 | 0.131 | 0.225 | 0.376 | 0.618 | 0.819 | 0.908 | 0.952 | 0.979 | 0.992 |
| 8 | Top | 0.015 | 0.035 | 0.068 | 0.138 | 0.250 | 0.533 | 0.762 | 0.889 | 0.946 | 0.975 | 0.990 |
| 8 | Bottom | 0.021 | 0.043 | 0.085 | 0.161 | 0.306 | 0.640 | 0.886 | 0.956 | 0.987 | 0.994 | 0.997 |
| 9 | Top | 0.007 | 0.011 | 0.029 | 0.068 | 0.151 | 0.524 | 0.862 | 0.944 | 0.983 | 0.991 | 0.997 |
| 9 | Bottom | 0.009 | 0.014 | 0.035 | 0.083 | 0.187 | 0.660 | | | | | |
| 10 | Top | | | | | | 0.525 | | | | | |
| 1969-1992 |
| Inning | Top/Bottom | -5 | -4 | -3 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 1 | Top | | | | | | 0.540 | | | | | |
| 1 | Bottom | 0.148 | 0.196 | 0.313 | 0.370 | 0.486 | 0.590 | | | | | |
| 2 | Top | 0.135 | 0.144 | 0.256 | 0.305 | 0.416 | 0.533 | 0.639 | 0.742 | 0.828 | 0.886 | 0.918 |
| 2 | Bottom | 0.174 | 0.189 | 0.263 | 0.334 | 0.451 | 0.579 | 0.685 | 0.784 | 0.851 | 0.929 | 0.927 |
| 3 | Top | 0.136 | 0.137 | 0.221 | 0.290 | 0.397 | 0.529 | 0.658 | 0.763 | 0.832 | 0.889 | 0.932 |
| 3 | Bottom | 0.146 | 0.165 | 0.243 | 0.333 | 0.451 | 0.578 | 0.708 | 0.801 | 0.864 | 0.930 | 0.946 |
| 4 | Top | 0.100 | 0.122 | 0.199 | 0.276 | 0.389 | 0.524 | 0.657 | 0.768 | 0.845 | 0.920 | 0.932 |
| 4 | Bottom | 0.107 | 0.137 | 0.221 | 0.311 | 0.439 | 0.583 | 0.723 | 0.824 | 0.888 | 0.936 | 0.966 |
| 5 | Top | 0.070 | 0.096 | 0.160 | 0.249 | 0.362 | 0.526 | 0.682 | 0.790 | 0.870 | 0.921 | 0.949 |
| 5 | Bottom | 0.080 | 0.111 | 0.182 | 0.285 | 0.413 | 0.590 | 0.743 | 0.846 | 0.908 | 0.944 | 0.963 |
| 6 | Top | 0.049 | 0.078 | 0.133 | 0.223 | 0.334 | 0.521 | 0.695 | 0.812 | 0.899 | 0.940 | 0.957 |
| 6 | Bottom | 0.058 | 0.083 | 0.157 | 0.263 | 0.395 | 0.592 | 0.774 | 0.875 | 0.936 | 0.966 | 0.975 |
| 7 | Top | 0.032 | 0.049 | 0.093 | 0.181 | 0.299 | 0.515 | 0.728 | 0.854 | 0.926 | 0.960 | 0.972 |
| 7 | Bottom | 0.037 | 0.068 | 0.110 | 0.212 | 0.346 | 0.603 | 0.823 | 0.915 | 0.961 | 0.977 | 0.989 |
| 8 | Top | 0.015 | 0.035 | 0.055 | 0.122 | 0.245 | 0.515 | 0.781 | 0.898 | 0.950 | 0.974 | 0.987 |
| 8 | Bottom | 0.015 | 0.043 | 0.066 | 0.146 | 0.292 | 0.631 | 0.895 | 0.955 | 0.984 | 0.991 | 0.997 |
| 9 | Top | 0.004 | 0.014 | 0.025 | 0.066 | 0.149 | 0.518 | 0.869 | 0.943 | 0.979 | 0.987 | 0.997 |
| 9 | Bottom | 0.007 | 0.015 | 0.032 | 0.076 | 0.183 | 0.654 | | | | | |
| 10 | Top | | | | | | 0.522 | | | | | |
| 1950-1968 |
| Inning | Top/Bottom | -5 | -4 | -3 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 1 | Top | | | | | | 0.540 | | | | | |
| 1 | Bottom | 0.122 | 0.175 | 0.276 | 0.382 | 0.481 | 0.591 | | | | | |
| 2 | Top | 0.094 | 0.147 | 0.215 | 0.302 | 0.409 | 0.531 | 0.655 | 0.766 | 0.815 | 0.897 | 0.931 |
| 2 | Bottom | 0.134 | 0.156 | 0.245 | 0.335 | 0.444 | 0.575 | 0.698 | 0.805 | 0.832 | 0.917 | 0.971 |
| 3 | Top | 0.143 | 0.109 | 0.183 | 0.288 | 0.391 | 0.528 | 0.659 | 0.773 | 0.836 | 0.901 | 0.925 |
| 3 | Bottom | 0.122 | 0.146 | 0.232 | 0.332 | 0.439 | 0.583 | 0.702 | 0.812 | 0.872 | 0.931 | 0.931 |
| 4 | Top | 0.090 | 0.098 | 0.177 | 0.274 | 0.387 | 0.530 | 0.656 | 0.776 | 0.842 | 0.916 | 0.924 |
| 4 | Bottom | 0.066 | 0.127 | 0.201 | 0.307 | 0.432 | 0.592 | 0.715 | 0.831 | 0.890 | 0.933 | 0.959 |
| 5 | Top | 0.044 | 0.079 | 0.153 | 0.240 | 0.362 | 0.528 | 0.667 | 0.802 | 0.868 | 0.922 | 0.957 |
| 5 | Bottom | 0.054 | 0.093 | 0.193 | 0.281 | 0.418 | 0.584 | 0.735 | 0.854 | 0.899 | 0.952 | 0.973 |
| 6 | Top | 0.032 | 0.070 | 0.129 | 0.218 | 0.342 | 0.531 | 0.688 | 0.819 | 0.872 | 0.936 | 0.967 |
| 6 | Bottom | 0.044 | 0.085 | 0.157 | 0.257 | 0.396 | 0.606 | 0.764 | 0.878 | 0.921 | 0.960 | 0.976 |
| 7 | Top | 0.028 | 0.042 | 0.090 | 0.180 | 0.301 | 0.518 | 0.728 | 0.849 | 0.915 | 0.951 | 0.974 |
| 7 | Bottom | 0.036 | 0.044 | 0.111 | 0.215 | 0.349 | 0.615 | 0.811 | 0.911 | 0.963 | 0.972 | 0.993 |
| 8 | Top | 0.013 | 0.026 | 0.055 | 0.134 | 0.239 | 0.526 | 0.771 | 0.892 | 0.948 | 0.971 | 0.995 |
| 8 | Bottom | 0.016 | 0.033 | 0.073 | 0.155 | 0.290 | 0.630 | 0.889 | 0.956 | 0.986 | 0.994 | 0.997 |
| 9 | Top | 0.005 | 0.012 | 0.030 | 0.068 | 0.152 | 0.515 | 0.862 | 0.943 | 0.980 | 0.994 | 0.997 |
| 9 | Bottom | 0.007 | 0.013 | 0.037 | 0.082 | 0.183 | 0.657 | | | | | |
| 10 | Top | | | | | | 0.526 | | | | | |
| Inning | Top/Bottom | -5 | -4 | -3 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
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