© Tangotiger
Say you have a team of 9 players who average 0.50 HR per PA, and get out the other 0.50 AB. Such a team will get 27 HR, while making 27 outs, and coming to bat 54 times. So, this team scored 27 runs. Let's say that this is an average team. So, each player is +0 runs relative to league average. With me so far?
Suppose you have a superstar who averages 1.00 HR per PA, and he takes the place of one of these guys on the team. What happens? Each time through the order, this team will make 4 outs (0.5 x 8 + 0 x 1). Since there are 27 outs in a game, you will be going through the order 6.75 times (or 60.75 PA). This superstar, by himself, within the context of the league, is responsible for an extra 6.75 plate appearances by his teammates (and himself).
How many runs did this team score? They came to bat 60.75 times, made 27 outs, and so scored 33.75 runs. This is +6.75 runs more than an average team would score. Since this team is made up of 8 average guys and 1 superstar, the means that the 8 average guys are +0 relative to average, and the remaining +6.75 is the superstar, relative to average.
All agreed, right? How many runs did each player "create".
Each batter came to the plate 6.75 times. The 8 average batters got 3.375 HR and 3.375 outs, while the superstar had 6 HR and 0 outs. Hmmm... so the 8 average hitters "created" 3.375 HR and the superstar created 6 HR.... but, didn't we just say that the average batter is 6.75 runs better than average?
Here are your choices:
Player Runs Above Average Runs Created --------------------------------------------------- superstar +6.75 6.75 player1 +0.00 3.375 player2 +0.00 3.375 ... player8 +0.00 3.375 --------------------------------------------------- Total +6.75 33.75 OR Player Runs Above Average Runs Created --------------------------------------------------- superstar +6.75 9.75 player1 +0.00 3.00 player2 +0.00 3.00 ... player8 +0.00 3.00 --------------------------------------------------- Total +6.75 33.75
What does the second chart say? Column 2 says that the superstar created 6.75 runs more than average FOR HIS TEAM, and the other average players created an average number of runs. Column 3 says that the superstar created FOR HIS TEAM 9.75 runs, and the average players created 3 runs.... this is in spite of the average players having hit 3.375 HR.
That's right. The average players hit 3.375, but only created 3 runs. More specifically, we can attribute 3 runs as being created by these average players, and the other .375 HR that these players hit are attributed to the superstar. Why? Because the superstar managed to get an extra 6.75 PA for his team.
Since we always presume the context, and by this player generating the extra 6.75 PA, he gets all the credit for it.
In either scenarios, his teammates hit 27 HR and got 27 outs. In the first scenario, this was split 9 ways. In the second scenario, this was split 8 ways. The only reason these average players got to come to bat more often is because of the superstar player not making all those outs.
The superstar player explicity created 6.75 runs, and implicity created 3 runs by not making an outs. His teammates explicitly created 3.375 runs, but implicity created -.375 runs by making an out more often than the team average (which includes the superstar).
The key to trying to understand this is that while you would properly assign +1 runs for a HR and -1 run for an out (in this league), hitters are assigned PAs and not outs. The reconciliation has to be worked out at the PA level.
It's a hard concept to accept, but this is how I do it.
If you work it out for a player who hits .000, you will end up with negative runs created. This is also hard to accept, but that's how I do it.