|
Forecaster |
ParticipationLevel |
|
|
2008 stats only |
Tango |
|
|
ANONYMOUS 1 |
Active |
|
|
ANONYMOUS 2 |
Active |
|
|
Ask Rotoman |
Active |
|
|
Baseball Info Solutions |
Active |
|
|
Baseball Primer (ZiPS) |
Active |
|
|
Brad Null |
Active |
|
|
CAIRO |
Active |
|
|
Chone |
Active |
|
|
Christopher Gueringer |
Active |
|
|
Cory Schwarz |
Active |
|
|
Derek Carty |
Active |
|
|
Fantasy Scope |
Active |
|
|
FeinSports.com |
Active |
|
|
Hardball Times |
Inactive |
|
|
KFFL |
Active |
|
|
Marcel |
Tango |
|
|
Oliver |
Active |
|
|
PECOTA (at least by proxy) |
Inactive |
|
|
Razzball |
Active |
|
|
RotoWorld |
Active |
|
|
CBS (proxy) |
Tango |
|
|
ESPN (proxy) |
Tango |
|
|
|
|
|
Most of you are in the Active Participation Level, meaning that you will be giving me a ranked list from 1 to n, where n = 25 * number of teams. The number of teams is expected to be in the 20 to 24 range. Unless there are any last-minute dropouts, the number of teams will be 22.
A couple of Forecasters are Inactive, meaning they will provide forecasts, and it will be up to me to convert them into a ranked list. The rest are Tango, meaning that I will download the forecasts from their websites (ESPN, CBS, etc), and rank them myself.
Ron Shandler has agreed to act as Advisor, as needed. I anticipate leaning on him for any insight his experience can offer.
The metric for hitting will be:
HR + SB + (H - .27*AB) + R/3 + RBI/3
The metric for pitching will be:
2*W + SV + K/5 + IP - (H + BB + ER)/2
The top players last year were at 150-160 points. The median are also roughly similar. You can even think of the points along the familiar RBI scale, as you will find when you prepare your rankings.
You will find that this system aligns itself nicely with the 5x5 leagues.
You will also find that the pitching metric will somewhat overweight starters compared to relievers (compared to the 5x5 leagues). This serves two purposes: (1) to make the starter/relief split more reasonable and (2) not to worry about teams loading up on relievers, which would force us to consider an overall minimum IP team total.
The roster sizes will be:
15 hitters: 2 C, 5 IF (2B/SS/3B), 5 OF, 2 1B/DH, 1 Utility (UT)
10 pitchers
I will supply the position group for each player: they can be found in the REPORT_POSITION_CLASS_2009_02_01.csv file. If there are any nonpitchers in which you are interested, that has not been assigned a position, then you need to tell me that you want this player classified for a position by March 1, 2009. Otherwise, he goes into the 1B/DH position group.
You will provide one ranked list from 1 to n, where n = 25 * number of teams. You must use one of these templates:
Order, MLBAM_ID, Player_Name
OR
MLBAM_ID, Player_Name
If you omit the “Order” field, then I will presume that you are giving me your list ordered as listed.
You must use the MLBAM_ID (which will be my Universal ID) noted in the REPORT_POSITION_CLASS_2009_02_01.csv file. This file contains the entire list of players of anyone who played in MLB or MiLB in 2008. For your convenience, I also show the BDBid, RetroID, STATSid, and BISid for each player. Any player who played in MLB in 2008 has each of these IDs mapped to the MLBAM_ID, so it should make joining to MLBAM_ID a snap.
If there is anyone else you are interested in (Japanese, Cubans, college players, etc who did not play in MLB or MiLB in 2008), then put a 0 in his ID field, and I’ll assign one to him.
I do NOT need to know your forecasted points for each player. I recommend you provide at least 500 players, with a maximum of 600.
DEADLINE: Opening Pitch, Sunday, Apr 5, 8pm ET.
My computer program will randomly select players using the standard snake-style draft order, and begin drafting based on the ranked order for each participant. Once your position pool allocation is filled, I simply go on to the next player on your list. If your ranked list is exhausted at some point, I will select using Marcel’s ranked list.
Each draft represents one league. Once one draft has been completed, I repeat the steps from the previous paragraph a fixed number of times.
I have not yet determined how many drafts I will automate. It will be at least one hundred, and at most one million, and will depend entirely on the processing speed of my eventual program. I am targeting a running time of one hour for all the drafts.
At the end of the season, I will total the player points for each team in each league. The top five teams will earn points. All other teams will earn zero points. The number of points to allocate will be equal to the number of teams.
If there are 24 teams in the league, then I will allocate 24 points to the top five teams, of which 12 points will go to first place. If there are 20 teams in the league, then I will allocate 20 points to the top five teams, of which 10 points will go to first place. As you can see, the “average” team will earn, on average, one point.
The point allocation will be as follows:
Points Rank
0 6th through last place
1 5th
2 4th
3 3rd
rest 2nd
n/2 1st
Where n is the number of teams. E.g.: with 24 teams, 1st place gets 12 points and 2nd gets 6 points; with 20 teams, 1st place gets 10 points and 2nd place gets 4.
I will allocate these points for each team in the one hundred (or one thousand or one million leagues), and add it up for each participant. The winner will be whoever gets the most points.
To give these numbers meaning, I will present it as a “winning percentage” as: total points / (2 * number of leagues), where .500 will be (by the definition of this point scheme) average. Results will be posted at http://tangotiger.net/forecast/ .