Using BaseRuns, we can generate custom Linear Weights values that are based on the run environment. A walk is only worth what it is because of the expectation of the frequency of the other events. The lower the run environment, the less value the walk has. The value of the HR caps off at around 1.46 runs, and then begins its descent. Pay special attention to how the run impact of the SB and CS move.
The values were baselined against the actual 1974-1990 environment (RPG=4.3), and then transformed into the various run environments by adjusting the batting outs. It's kind of cool, actually. Anyway, I have not verified the results against the 1999-2002 environment (5 RPG), yet. But, they do look somewhat consistent with empirical results I have previously published.
A special thanks to David Smyth, as the original architect of BaseRuns, and Pete Palmer, as the pioneer of Linear Weights.
| | Runs Per Game
|
| Events | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10
|
| Single | 0.238 | 0.333 | 0.398 | 0.448 | 0.488 | 0.522 | 0.551 | 0.576 | 0.599 | 0.619
|
| Double | 0.407 | 0.556 | 0.653 | 0.725 | 0.781 | 0.826 | 0.864 | 0.896 | 0.923 | 0.947
|
| Triple | 0.572 | 0.773 | 0.901 | 0.994 | 1.065 | 1.121 | 1.167 | 1.206 | 1.238 | 1.265
|
| HR | 1.236 | 1.31 | 1.354 | 1.384 | 1.406 | 1.422 | 1.434 | 1.443 | 1.449 | 1.454
|
| Walk | 0.144 | 0.21 | 0.257 | 0.295 | 0.327 | 0.354 | 0.378 | 0.4 | 0.42 | 0.438
|
| IBB | 0.069 | 0.112 | 0.145 | 0.174 | 0.198 | 0.221 | 0.241 | 0.26 | 0.278 | 0.294
|
| HBP | 0.159 | 0.23 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.353 | 0.382 | 0.407 | 0.429 | 0.449 | 0.468
|
| Error | 0.248 | 0.346 | 0.413 | 0.464 | 0.506 | 0.54 | 0.57 | 0.595 | 0.618 | 0.638
|
| Interference | 0.175 | 0.251 | 0.304 | 0.346 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.436 | 0.459 | 0.48 | 0.498
|
| OtherSafe | 0.336 | 0.462 | 0.546 | 0.608 | 0.657 | 0.698 | 0.732 | 0.761 | 0.786 | 0.808
|
| Sac | 0.041 | 0.011 | -0.031 | -0.078 | -0.129 | -0.181 | -0.234 | -0.288 | -0.343 | -0.398
|
| Strikeout | -0.068 | -0.132 | -0.195 | -0.256 | -0.316 | -0.376 | -0.435 | -0.493 | -0.551 | -0.608
|
| Out | -0.06 | -0.122 | -0.184 | -0.244 | -0.304 | -0.363 | -0.421 | -0.479 | -0.537 | -0.594
|
| SB | 0.113 | 0.149 | 0.17 | 0.184 | 0.195 | 0.202 | 0.208 | 0.212 | 0.216 | 0.218
|
| CS | -0.166 | -0.261 | -0.342 | -0.416 | -0.486 | -0.552 | -0.616 | -0.678 | -0.738 | -0.798
|
| Pickoff | -0.04 | -0.096 | -0.153 | -0.211 | -0.269 | -0.326 | -0.384 | -0.441 | -0.498 | -0.555
|
| PickoffError | -0.108 | -0.142 | -0.163 | -0.177 | -0.187 | -0.194 | -0.199 | -0.203 | -0.207 | -0.209
|
| Balk | 0.147 | 0.193 | 0.22 | 0.239 | 0.252 | 0.262 | 0.27 | 0.275 | 0.28 | 0.283
|
| PB | 0.162 | 0.213 | 0.243 | 0.264 | 0.279 | 0.29 | 0.298 | 0.304 | 0.309 | 0.313
|
| WP | 0.163 | 0.215 | 0.245 | 0.266 | 0.281 | 0.292 | 0.301 | 0.307 | 0.311 | 0.315
|
| DefensiveIndiff | 0.077 | 0.101 | 0.116 | 0.126 | 0.133 | 0.138 | 0.142 | 0.145 | 0.147 | 0.149
|
| OtherAdvance | -0.216 | -0.285 | -0.325 | -0.353 | -0.373 | -0.388 | -0.399 | -0.407 | -0.413 | -0.418
|